#229 David Woo: DeepSeek's Massive Macro Implications, Trump 2.0 Challenges, and Top Trade Ideas

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Jan 28, 2025

David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound and a seasoned macro trends blogger, shares his insights on significant economic and political shifts. He examines China’s DeepSeek AI breakthrough and its impact on U.S. tech monopolies, emphasizing a 3% drop in the NASDAQ. Woo also discusses the challenges Trump may face in his second term, particularly regarding fiscal policy and alliances, highlighting the Freedom Caucus's influence. Additionally, he touches on the complexities of U.S.-China relations, Mexico’s role in trade and border security, and strategic investment opportunities.

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INSIGHT

DeepSeek's Macro Impact

DeepSeek's AI model challenges US tech monopolies and economic exceptionalism.
US exceptionalism, fueled by AI and foreign policy, has driven market dominance.

INSIGHT

Tech Monopolies and Cloud Computing

US tech monopolies control cloud computing, a lucrative, high-profit business.
Their dominance allows them to charge high prices, exemplified by a 300% increase for one company.

INSIGHT

DeepSeek's Challenge

DeepSeek's open-source model, developed at a fraction of the cost, questions US AI dominance.
Microsoft CEO's validation of DeepSeek's results spooked the market.

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Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, joins Julia La Roche on episode 228 in a two-part interview. On Monday, he rejoined to provide analysis on China's DeepSeek AI breakthrough and the massive macro implications. On Friday, he provided a deep dive into Trump's second term strategy and the global chess moves, from US-China negotiations to the crucial role of Mexico in border security.

In Part 1, Woo discusses how DeepSeek's AI model from China has impacted markets, with the NASDAQ down 3% and Nvidia dropping over 16%. He examines how this development challenges US tech monopolies' dominance and what this means for US economic exceptionalism and tech sector valuations.

In Part 2, Woo analyzes the challenges facing Trump's second term, particularly regarding fiscal policy and the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. He highlights the critical role of the Freedom Caucus, which holds significant power with Republicans' one-seat majority in the House. The discussion covers several key areas:

The potential alliance between the Freedom Caucus and Elon Musk on fiscal policy Mexico's proactive approach to border security and trade relations Contrasting positions of Mexico and Canada on trade negotiations The complexities of the TikTok situation and potential solutions US-China relations and the possibility of returning to the Phase One trade agreement Investment opportunities in Chinese equities, the Mexican peso, and 5-year US Treasuries

Links:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

Part 1: DeepSeek Discussion

0:00 Intro with David Woo 1:02 DeepSeek's impact on markets and US tech dominance 3:13 Analysis of US market capitalization growth 5:47 Discussion of US tech monopolies and cloud computing 7:14 DeepSeek's challenge to US AI dominance 9:09 Market reaction to DeepSeek's test results 11:15 Impact on technology monetization 12:17 Conclusion

Part 2

12:30 Introduction 13:21 Trump administration challenges 21:21 Freedom Caucus and fiscal policy 34:25 Trump's foreign policy approach 36:49 TikTok situation analysis 41:44 US-China trade relations 43:40 Trump's 2017 China visit story 46:03 Chinese market investment outlook 49:10 Mexico vs Canada analysis 56:10 US Treasury market outlook 59:13 Closing thoughts