Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, joins Julia La Roche on episode 228 in a two-part interview. On Monday, he rejoined to provide analysis on China's DeepSeek AI breakthrough and the massive macro implications. On Friday, he provided a deep dive into Trump's second term strategy and the global chess moves, from US-China negotiations to the crucial role of Mexico in border security.
In Part 1, Woo discusses how DeepSeek's AI model from China has impacted markets, with the NASDAQ down 3% and Nvidia dropping over 16%. He examines how this development challenges US tech monopolies' dominance and what this means for US economic exceptionalism and tech sector valuations.
In Part 2, Woo analyzes the challenges facing Trump's second term, particularly regarding fiscal policy and the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. He highlights the critical role of the Freedom Caucus, which holds significant power with Republicans' one-seat majority in the House. The discussion covers several key areas:
The potential alliance between the Freedom Caucus and Elon Musk on fiscal policy
Mexico's proactive approach to border security and trade relations
Contrasting positions of Mexico and Canada on trade negotiations
The complexities of the TikTok situation and potential solutions
US-China relations and the possibility of returning to the Phase One trade agreement
Investment opportunities in Chinese equities, the Mexican peso, and 5-year US Treasuries
Links:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound
Part 1: DeepSeek Discussion
0:00 Intro with David Woo
1:02 DeepSeek's impact on markets and US tech dominance
3:13 Analysis of US market capitalization growth
5:47 Discussion of US tech monopolies and cloud computing
7:14 DeepSeek's challenge to US AI dominance
9:09 Market reaction to DeepSeek's test results
11:15 Impact on technology monetization
12:17 Conclusion
Part 2
12:30 Introduction
13:21 Trump administration challenges
21:21 Freedom Caucus and fiscal policy
34:25 Trump's foreign policy approach
36:49 TikTok situation analysis
41:44 US-China trade relations
43:40 Trump's 2017 China visit story
46:03 Chinese market investment outlook
49:10 Mexico vs Canada analysis
56:10 US Treasury market outlook
59:13 Closing thoughts
