Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese cover image

Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Talking Pies, Pi Day & Patty’s Day with Warren Pies (Ep. 126)

Mar 12, 2025
Warren Pies, Co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins the discussion, offering expertise in macro quantitative research. They explore the latest job numbers, stressing that despite concerns, key indicators like residential construction payrolls are holding steady. The Fed's challenge of finding a neutral interest rate and its potential impact on economic growth takes center stage. Additionally, they celebrate Pi Day and St. Patrick’s Day with lighthearted anecdotes about favorite pies and Chicago's iconic green river tradition.
46:58

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Current job figures indicate economic resilience, with strong residential construction payrolls suggesting no imminent downturn risks.
  • The Fed's challenge lies in determining neutral interest rates while balancing inflation concerns and the need for economic growth support.

Deep dives

Macro Economic Indicators and Job Market Outlook

The recent job numbers indicate the economy is not facing a significant crack, as reported figures came in slightly below expectations. There is a need for careful monitoring of residential construction payrolls, which serve as crucial indicators for economic downturns. Currently, these payrolls remain at cycle highs, suggesting that the housing market isn't experiencing a major downturn yet. Analysts believe that job losses, often stemming from cyclical employment sectors like construction, are vital signals to gauge potential recessions.

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