Warren Pies, Co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins the discussion, offering expertise in macro quantitative research. They explore the latest job numbers, stressing that despite concerns, key indicators like residential construction payrolls are holding steady. The Fed's challenge of finding a neutral interest rate and its potential impact on economic growth takes center stage. Additionally, they celebrate Pi Day and St. Patrick’s Day with lighthearted anecdotes about favorite pies and Chicago's iconic green river tradition.
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insights INSIGHT
Economy and Recession Risks
The jobs report doesn't signal a recession yet, but economic sentiment swings wildly.
Residential construction payrolls, a key indicator, remain strong at cycle highs.
insights INSIGHT
Restrictive Policy and the Fed
The Fed may need to cut rates more than expected to address restrictive policy.
High mortgage rates demonstrate this restrictiveness in the housing market.
insights INSIGHT
Job Growth and Recession
Recent job growth is concentrated in non-cyclical sectors like government and healthcare.
These sectors are less susceptible to sudden job cuts that could trigger a recession.
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In this week’s episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist are joined by Warren Pies, Co-Founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss market trends, recession risks, Fed policy, and, of course, some fun Pi Day and St. Patrick’s Day talk. They dive into economic growth concerns, interest rates, inflation, and why a growth scare doesn’t necessarily mean a recession is coming.
Key Takeaways:
Is a Growth Scare Just That? Market sentiment has shifted, but there’s no clear recession signal yet. Key indicators like residential construction payrolls remain strong.
The Fed’s Search for Neutral: Interest rates are still restrictive, but the Fed may need to cut more than expected this year to support economic growth.
Government Spending & Deficits: Large fiscal deficits have been a cushion for the economy, but potential cuts could introduce new risks.
Energy Market Insights: Oil prices are trending lower, which is good for inflation and Fed policy, but may present challenges for energy companies.
Market Volatility & Rate Cuts: The Fed’s reluctance to ease policy is contributing to a growth scare, but this may just be a temporary market correction.
Housing & Economic Signals: While mortgage rates remain high, housing market fundamentals aren’t signaling an imminent downturn.
Pi Day & St. Patrick’s Day Fun: We discuss Chicago’s green river tradition, our favorite pies, and how Warren’s firm got its name.
Join us for a special Women’s History Month edition of Facts vs Feelings, featuring top women leaders in finance discussing markets, investing, and industry insights. Register now: https://www.linkedin.com/events/7303883891440762880
Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese 