632nm Can We Predict History Like the Weather? | Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics
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Nov 4, 2025 
Peter Turchin, a complexity scientist and pioneer of cliodynamics, dives deep into why civilizations rise and fall. He introduces the concept of elite overproduction, explaining how an excess of ambitious elites leads to societal polarization and political turmoil. Turchin’s structural-demographic theory reveals the cyclical nature of history, how military competition enhances cooperation, and the impact of new technologies like AI and LiDAR on historical research. He advocates using computational models to predict societal breakdowns and promote policy interventions for stability.
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Elite Aspirant Overcrowding Breeds Conflict
- When elite aspirants far outnumber available power positions, rule-breaking and violent competition become likely.
- Peter Turchin likens this to musical chairs where adding players (aspirants) rather than removing chairs (positions) causes conflict.
Musical Chairs And Donald Trump Example
- Turchin tells a musical-chairs story to explain elite aspirants versus positions.
- He names Donald Trump as an example of a counter-elite who broke rules to translate wealth and fame into political power.
History Shows Recurrent Boom–Bust Cycles
- Societies show boom–bust rhythms with characteristic multi-century periods driven by structural dynamics.
- Turchin's cliodynamics finds roughly 200-year cycles of integrative peace followed by instability across many historical polities.
