Building Computational Models and Multipath Forecasting

Why do civilizations rise, prosper, and then collapse? Here's what the math tells us.

In this episode, we sit down with Peter Turchin, complexity scientist and founder of the field of cliodynamics, which uses data and mathematical models to study the long-term cycles of history. Turchin explains his theory of elite overproduction, how societies generate too many ambitious, educated elites competing for too few positions, and why this dynamic reliably leads to polarization, inequality, and political turmoil.

We explore how his structural-demographic theory maps the recurring “boom and bust” rhythms that have shaped civilizations from ancient Rome to modern America, the role of military competition in driving cooperation and social complexity, and how new tools—from AI-assisted historical databases to ancient DNA and LiDAR—are transforming the study of the past.

Whether you’re drawn to history, sociology, complexity science, or the fate of modern democracies, this conversation reveals how Turchin’s quantitative approach offers a new way to understand—and maybe even forecast—the forces that make societies rise and fall.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro
01:48 - Overproduction of Elites
10:56 - Did Models Predict the Rise of Trump?
20:43 - Is Russian History Repeating in the US?
26:48 - How Competition Stabilizes Societies
32:14 - What Data Goes into Cliodynamic Models?
38:13 - How New Technologies Shaped Archaeology
43:28 - Can Historians Build Mathematical Intuitions?
47:59 - What Questions can be Answered with Cliodynamics?
52:23 - Does the NYC Mayoral Race Fit into Turchin's Theory?
56:37 - Is Fear of China Bringing Us Together?
58:29 - Do Historians Reject Turchin’s Work?
1:00:03 - Trends in Civilizations and Outliers
1:03:29 - Calvary and the Evolution of Societies
1:10:03 - Is Evolution via Natural Selection a Suitable Analog for History?
1:15:16 - Could Turchin's Ideas Be Misinterpreted Dangerously?