Adam Posen, an expert in economics and international finance, warns about the dangers of Bidenomics and the misguided approach to domestic industrial policy. He discusses the risks of relying on semiconductors and green technology, as well as the perceived competitive threats from China. The podcast also explores the importance of understanding changes in the economy and the financing of technology. It concludes with a discussion on the challenges of fiscal policy and central banks in the face of economic conflict.
Read more
AI Summary
Highlights
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
The Biden administration's push for domestic manufacturing is driven by concerns over supply chain vulnerability, climate change, and Chinese dominance in key areas.
Adam Posen argues that the current approach to domestic industrial policy is flawed and based on a faulty understanding of economic dynamics.
The focus on restrictive trade policies and national champions may have international repercussions and hinder the adoption of green technology.
Deep dives
Challenges of Fiscal Policies and Trade Policy
The podcast episode explores how fiscal policies, macro policy, trade policy, and industrial policy are challenging for central bankers to navigate. The discussion focuses on the need for central banks to understand the real economy and respond accordingly, particularly in light of supply chain issues and increased fiscal spending. The episode raises questions about how central banks should respond to the changing landscape of economic policies and the potential impact on monetary policy and inflation.
Concerns about Domestic Policy Choices
The podcast episode features a conversation with Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who expresses concern about some domestic policy choices being made, including industrial policy and trade choices. Posen highlights four areas of worry, including the potential political motivations behind certain policies, the creation of national champions through government support, the international repercussions of anti-trade rhetoric, and the accessibility and adoption of green technology. He stresses the importance of ensuring technology is widely utilized and not restricted by political loyalties.
Industrial Policy Design Choices
Posen discusses good and bad design choices in industrial policy. He emphasizes that public investment should focus more on infrastructure and public goods rather than specific company capacity, while also allowing room for competition from abroad. Posen believes that investing in universities, research and development, skilled immigration, and infrastructure can be more effective in fostering productivity growth and innovation than investing in specific industries.
China's Economic Model and Geopolitical Concerns
Posen addresses concerns about China's economic and geopolitical threats, suggesting a focus on suction rather than sanctions to exert pressure on China's economic system. He emphasizes that a more inward-focused trade policy may lead to negative repercussions, including retaliatory actions and escalation of economic conflicts into geopolitical tensions. Posen argues for a mindful approach to China, balancing economic competition with strategic and national security considerations.
Impact of Fiscal Policy on Central Banks
The podcast episode touches upon the implications of increased fiscal spending for central banks. Posen discusses the challenges faced by central bankers, including potential inflation risks, long-term interest rates, and productivity growth. He highlights the need for central banks to consider the impact of sustained public spending and the allocation of capital as they navigate the evolving economic landscape.
The Biden administration has undertaken an aggressive effort to revitalize domestic manufacturing, particularly in areas like semiconductors and green technology. The reasons are manifold. The pandemic exposed frailties in the supply chain. Climate concerns have accelerated the urgency around the energy transition. And anxiety about growing Chinese dominance in key areas (such as batteries) has heightened geopolitical concerns. So now, day after day, we see spates of announcements of new factories being opened up in these areas. But what are the risks and dangers to this approach? On this episode of the podcast, recorded at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, we speak with Adam Posen, a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee who now serves as president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He warns that the basic logic for this domestic industrial policy is misguided and based on a faulty understanding of domestic economic dynamics. He also says that we're taking a wrong and dangerous approach to dealing with perceived competitive threats from China.