EconTalk Gerd Gigerenzer on Gut Feelings
Dec 2, 2019
Gerd Gigerenzer, a leading expert in decision-making from the Max Planck Institute, discusses the importance of gut feelings over complex models in navigating choices. He emphasizes the value of simple heuristics, especially in uncertain situations like hiring and finance. Gigerenzer critiques complex risk assessments that failed during the 2008 crisis, advocating for streamlined tools. He also highlights the pitfalls of medical screenings and champions personal experience as a guide in decision-making, illustrating how intuitive methods often outperform intricate algorithms.
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Gut Feelings in Uncertainty
- Gut feelings are helpful in uncertain situations where calculations are impossible.
- Use heuristics, or rules of thumb, when dealing with uncertainty, not calculations.
Teacher Hiring
- Russ Roberts's wife, a schoolteacher, was influenced by Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.
- She now uses analytical rubrics when hiring, rather than relying on gut feelings.
Israeli Air Force Hiring
- Russ Roberts questions if analytical hiring always outperforms intuition, citing Kahneman's Israeli Air Force example.
- Gigerenzer suggests that experience combined with information gathering leads to better decisions.
