EconTalk Gerd Gigerenzer on Gut Feelings
Dec 2, 2019
Gerd Gigerenzer, a leading expert in decision-making from the Max Planck Institute, discusses the importance of gut feelings over complex models in navigating choices. He emphasizes the value of simple heuristics, especially in uncertain situations like hiring and finance. Gigerenzer critiques complex risk assessments that failed during the 2008 crisis, advocating for streamlined tools. He also highlights the pitfalls of medical screenings and champions personal experience as a guide in decision-making, illustrating how intuitive methods often outperform intricate algorithms.
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Israeli Air Force Hiring
- Russ Roberts questions if analytical hiring always outperforms intuition, citing Kahneman's Israeli Air Force example.
- Gigerenzer suggests that experience combined with information gathering leads to better decisions.
Golf and Intuition
- Studies show experienced golfers putt better under time pressure, relying on intuition.
- This contrasts with beginners, highlighting the importance of experience in gut decisions.
Emergency Room Decisions
- A complex study with 25 variables for emergency room decisions did better explaining the past than predicting the future.
- A simpler, fast and frugal tree with 3 variables predicted future outcomes better.
