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Do Explain with Christofer Lövgren
#31.2 - Problematic Probability, with Ben Chugg
Aug 1, 2021
In this discussion, Ben Chugg, a research fellow at Stanford Law School with expertise in math and computer science, dives into intriguing philosophical topics. They explore Pascal's mugging and the pitfalls of probability, questioning traditional decision-making. The conversation shifts to cliodynamics, highlighting the unpredictability of history. Ethical implications of AI and immortality spark reflections on societal values and mental health. Lastly, they confront the complexities of suffering and longtermism, critiquing effective altruism's direction.
01:27:59
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Quick takeaways
- The discussion on Pascal's mugging illustrates how low-probability, high-impact events complicate rational decision-making in uncertain situations.
- Bayesian decision theory is critiqued for potentially misleading decisions, advocating for flexible approaches that prioritize contextual understanding over strict probabilities.
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Vision for Duexplain
The episode discusses the host's gratitude towards supporters and shares his vision for the future of the podcast. He aims to dedicate more time to create a platform for the free exchange of ideas, ideally without advertising. To achieve this goal, he expresses the need for a steady income and encourages listeners to support the project through Patreon. This emphasis on community backing reflects a commitment to maintaining the podcast's integrity while exploring diverse topics.
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