Decoding Geopolitics Podcast
#59 Mark Galeotti: Putin’s Strategy Will Backfire. 2026 Will be Russia’s Toughest Year Yet
Apr 17, 2025
Mark Galeotti, a distinguished Russia expert, delves into the complexities of U.S.-Russian negotiations and the implications of Putin's strategy. He discusses the unrealistic demands stemming from Russia's imperialist mindset and the potential backfire of their tactics in Europe. Galeotti predicts that 2026 will be a challenging year for Russia, citing heavy losses in the ongoing war and internal struggles within the Kremlin. The conversation highlights the nuanced interplay of cultural perceptions and economic pressures shaping these critical geopolitical dynamics.
36:06
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Quick takeaways
- The ongoing U.S.-Russian negotiations reveal a complex interplay of manipulation and strategic interests, complicating the prospects for a genuine peace deal.
- Mark Galeotti suggests that 2026 will be a difficult year for Russia, as overambitious negotiation strategies may ultimately backfire.
Deep dives
The Complex Nature of US-Russia Negotiations
The current negotiations between the US and Russia are marked by differing perspectives within the Trump administration on how to handle Putin's stances. Some, like Marco Rubio and Keith Kellogg, advocate for a tougher approach, believing that Putin is stalling for time and showing little genuine interest in peace. Opposing them, figures like Steve Witkoff argue that Putin is open to negotiation and actually desires a settlement. This reflects a broader tension, as negotiations are characterized by a combination of genuine strategic interests for both nations but also manipulation and misinterpretation in how each side perceives the other’s intentions.
