Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl #59 Mark Galeotti: Putin’s Strategy Will Backfire. 2026 Will be Russia’s Toughest Year Yet
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Apr 17, 2025 
Mark Galeotti, a distinguished Russia expert, delves into the complexities of U.S.-Russian negotiations and the implications of Putin's strategy. He discusses the unrealistic demands stemming from Russia's imperialist mindset and the potential backfire of their tactics in Europe. Galeotti predicts that 2026 will be a challenging year for Russia, citing heavy losses in the ongoing war and internal struggles within the Kremlin. The conversation highlights the nuanced interplay of cultural perceptions and economic pressures shaping these critical geopolitical dynamics.
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Putin's Negotiation Strategy
- Putin is likely stalling negotiations to negotiate from a position of strength.
- The U.S. should respond with credible pressure, not just offers, to push Russia towards peace.
Russia's Broader Negotiation Goals
- Russia seeks a broad deal beyond Ukraine, aiming for sanctions relief and a reworked European security framework.
- Ukraine's territories are bargaining chips in a larger geopolitical negotiation beyond their actual control.
Russia's Maximalist Demands Tactic
- Russian maximalist demands are part of a negotiation tactic that risks pricing them out of any deal.
- They obscure their real priorities to keep leverage and offer token concessions.