ChinaTalk

Tooze and Klein on China's Economic History and Future

Sep 3, 2021
Economist and historian Adam Tooze, known for his insights into 20th-century economic history, joins Matt Klein, co-host of the Overshoot newsletter, to dive into China's complex economic landscape. They discuss the CCP's human development achievements since 1949, the hyperinflation crisis from 1937 to 1949, and how past policies have shaped China's current economic strategies. Their analysis also touches on global economic trends and the potential implications for China's future in a rapidly changing world.
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INSIGHT

China's Unexpected Growth Potential

  • The World Bank's 1983 report viewed China as a favorable growth prospect, contrary to the belief that the CCP hindered development.
  • This was due to China's advanced human development and agricultural modernization compared to other low-income countries.
INSIGHT

Impact of Violence on Chinese GDP

  • China's depressed GDP wasn't due to human capital issues, but 140 years of violence hindering physical capital investment.
  • Once the violence ended, human capital combined with peace created the conditions for rapid economic growth.
INSIGHT

China's Growth Model Challenges

  • While authoritarian regimes are thought to have long-term perspectives, China's growth model created vested interests.
  • These interests favor physical over human capital investment, hindering the desired transition despite official pronouncements.
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