The Inside View

Katja Grace on Slowing Down AI, AI Expert Surveys And Estimating AI Risk

Sep 16, 2022

01:41:14

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Episode notes

Is There a High Level Machine Intelligence?

01:38

Is an Ai Agentic?

02:17

Slowing Artificial Intelligence Progress?

02:08

Introduction

2min

Slowing Artificial Intelligence Progress?

2min

Slowing Down AI Progress?

3min

Are We Going to Slow Down a I Too Much?

2min

How to Build a Line a I?

3min

Are You Actually in an Arms Race?

2min

Is It a Good Idea to Build a Nuclear Weapon?

3min

Is It the Safety to Get to the People?

2min

I've Played the Game Intelligence Rising

2min

10.

Do You Think We Can't Convince People to Slow Down?

3min

11.

How to Convince People to Stop Trying to Stop Artificial Intelligence?

2min

12.

Do You Think There's a Ten % Chance That You're Going to Die?

2min

13.

Lobbing for Climbing Chan Hes Worked Pretty Well

2min

14.

Is There a Slowing Down of Progress?

2min

15.

Is It Possible to Work on Alignment Without Forwarding Ai Progress?

2min

16.

Why People Aren't Trying to Slow Down Progress

2min

17.

Economic Pressure Is Impossible to Avoid

2min

18.

Colonizing the Stars Without a G I?

2min

19.

Is It Possible to Send Minplods to Space?

2min

20.

Is There Any Hope for a Better World?

2min

21.

How to Make Predictions on Metaculus?

2min

22.

Is Number a Conditional Proablity?

2min

23.

Is an Ai Agentic?

2min

24.

I'd Like to Be an Agent, or Something Like That?

2min

25.

Is There a Risk to Humanity?

3min

26.

How Do You Think We're Going to Have a Slow or Fast Take Off?

2min

27.

What Are the Questions You Ask in 20 16?

4min

28.

Is There a High Level Machine Intelligence?

2min

29.

Is There a Future for Robotics?

2min

30.

All Economically Useful Tasks Is Going to Be Pretty Similar to All Tasks

3min

31.

Is It a Logistical Hassel?

2min

32.

Would You Like to Have a 50 Percent Chance of a High Level Machine Intelligence?

2min

33.

Is the Masgaro Law a One Time Shock?

2min

34.

Is There a Correlation Between Older and Older?

2min

35.

Are You Trying to Ask People Questions About Other World Events?

2min

36.

Is the Ai Alignment Problem Hard?

2min

37.

Should Society Priory Tie?

2min

38.

Take Off Speeds - Is Slow Take Off a Good Idea?

2min

39.

Is There a Limit to Human Intelligence?

2min

40.

How Do You Aggregate Things?

2min

41.

Is the Commut Distribution a Normal Distribution?

5min

42.

How Is That Different From the Basic Argument Of, You Know, New Entities?

2min

43.

Is There a Difference Between Humans and Cognitive Labor?

2min

44.

Do You Think You're Going to Still Be Alive?

2min

45.

What Is the Least Impressive Fit That You Would Bet Big Money at Nine to One Odds Cannot Possibly Be Done in Two Years?

2min

46.

How Much Money a Won't Bet?

2min

47.

What Will Not Happen in Two Years?

3min

Katja runs AI Impacts, a research project trying to incrementally answer decision-relevant questions about the future of AI. She is well known for a survey published in 2017 called, When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence From AI Experts and recently published a new survey of AI Experts: What do ML researchers think about AI in 2022. We start this episode by discussing what Katja is currently thinking about, namely an answer to Scott Alexander on why slowing down AI Progress is an underexplored path to impact.

Youtube: https://youtu.be/rSw3UVDZge0

Audio & Transcript: https://theinsideview.ai/katja

Host: https://twitter.com/MichaelTrazzi

Katja: https://twitter.com/katjagrace

OUTLINE

(00:00) Highlights

(00:58) Intro

(01:33) Why Advocating For Slowing Down AI Might Be Net Bad

(04:35) Why Slowing Down AI Is Taboo

(10:14) Why Katja Is Not Currently Giving A Talk To The UN

(12:40) To Avoid An Arms Race, Do Not Accelerate Capabilities

(16:27) How To Cooperate And Implement Safety Measures

(21:26) Would AI Researchers Actually Accept Slowing Down AI?

(29:08) Common Arguments Against Slowing Down And Their Counterarguments

(36:26) To Go To The Stars, Build AGI Or Upload Your Mind

(39:46) Why Katja Thinks There Is A 7% Chance Of AI Destroys The World

(46:39) Why We Might End Up Building Agents

(51:02) AI Impacts Answer Empirical Questions To Help Solve Important Ones

(56:32) The 2022 Expert Survey on AI Progress

(58:56) High Level Machine Intelligence

(1:04:02) Running A Survey That Actually Collects Data

(1:08:38) How AI Timelines Have Become Shorter Since 2016

(1:14:35) Are AI Researchers Still Too Optimistic?

(1:18:20) AI Experts Seem To Believe In Slower Takeoffs

(1:25:11) Automation and the Unequal Distributions of Cognitive power

(1:34:59) The Least Impressive Thing that Cannot Be Done in 2 years

(1:38:17) Final thoughts

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The Inside View

Katja Grace on Slowing Down AI, AI Expert Surveys And Estimating AI Risk

Is There a High Level Machine Intelligence?

Is an Ai Agentic?

Slowing Artificial Intelligence Progress?

Get the Snipdpodcast app

AI-poweredpodcast player

Discoverhighlights

Save anymoment

Share& Export

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Discoverhighlights

Get the Snipd
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moment

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