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Katja Grace on Slowing Down AI, AI Expert Surveys And Estimating AI Risk
The Inside View
Is the Masgaro Law a One Time Shock?
If you by the supposed mas garo law that is always predicted to happen a safe distance in time after one's retirement, then the estimate should have moved from 20 61 to 20 67. So in terms of that change, they didn't move merely the na change of two years, but a full eight years. I wonder if it was a one time shock due to past few years of scaling. But also, as i fel ie yu ork, youare like asking for something very hardso one interesting thing, as you can compare to survey, wasa the survey you run before ad write,. and you can know whether people have shortened their time lines or not. And they did
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