Chris, Melanie, and Zack assess the warning signs for the US in Southeast Asia, discuss American shipbuilding concerns, and critique American and Japanese leaders' announcements. They explore shifting perceptions in Southeast Asia towards the US, analyze the effectiveness of the US-led Indo-Pacific Framework, and navigate challenges in navy shipbuilding and economic alliances. The dialogue also covers defense policy reform and US-Japan cooperation announcements.
Decreased US engagement in Southeast Asia under Biden administration raises concerns.
Shift in ASEAN preference towards China over the US highlights trust deficit.
Concerns over US' capacity for global leadership and negative perception of International Public Affairs Framework (IPAF).
Deep dives
US Engagement with Southeast Asia
Southeast Asian countries are questioning the level of US engagement under the Biden administration, with a noticeable decrease from 25% to 38% perceiving a decline. Confidence in the US as a strategic partner has also wavered, with up to 40% expressing little to no confidence.
China vs. US Choice in ASEAN
A significant shift has occurred in ASEAN's preference between aligning with China or the US. Last year, 61% favored the US, but this year, 50.5% chose China over the US. The change highlights a potential trust deficit and uncertain alignment preferences in the region.
Implications of US Policies for ASEAN Relations
The concern arises regarding US capacity for global leadership and distractions from domestic affairs impacting the region's perception. The Biden administration faces challenges in fostering trust and alignment in Southeast Asia, particularly evident in Indonesia and Malaysia due to factors like the Israel-Hamas conflict and regional economic interactions.
Views on IPAF and Market Access
Some respondents expressed concerns that the International Public Affairs Framework (IPAF) did not offer market access for their countries and instead imposed compliance costs, leading to a negative perception of the agreement. The percentage of respondents holding this view increased from 28% in 2023 to almost 46% in 2024, highlighting the belief that IPAF might result in burdensome tasks with minimal benefits.
US Influence in Southeast Asia
Despite concerns about the United States' political and strategic influence in Southeast Asia, there was a notable increase in the perception of the US as an influential economic power. While China continued to dominate as the most influential economic partner, the US saw an increase in influence from 10% to 14% in 2024. However, the US witnessed a decline in being seen as politically and strategically influential, falling from 31% in 2023 to 25% in 2024, showcasing a mixed perception of the US role in the region despite some positive economic trends.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the 2024 ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute State of Southeast Asia Survey, in which regional experts assess power trends and perceptions among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The report yields some warning signs for the United States in the region, suggesting that the Biden team has much more work to do in Southeast Asia. Chris and Melanie worry about American shipbuilding while Zack commends and critiques American and Japanese leaders for announcements connected to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to Washington.
