L'Envers du business, par Harvard Business Review Faire de la stratégie, c'est comme jouer à la roulette
9 snips
Jun 26, 2025 
Frédéric Fréry, a Professor at ESCP Business School and author of '100 idées impertinentes pour mieux manager', dives deep into the complexities of business strategy. He argues that strategy resembles roulette more than chess, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of business risks. Fréry illustrates how businesses must identify weak signals and adapt to unforeseen events, like the pandemic's impact on Zoom's growth. He contrasts strategic planning with the chaotic realities of decision-making, revealing the intricacies of navigating uncertainty.
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Strategy Is Not Like Chess
- Business strategy is not like chess, because the ground is ever-changing and rules can be reinvented.
- Players are individuals, not fixed pieces, and clients influence the game unlike in chess.
Roulette Illustrates Strategy Better
- The game that surprisingly better symbolizes business strategy is the casino roulette.
- At roulette, you wager known resources, but the outcome is uncertain, similar to strategic business bets.
Business Uncertainty Exceeds Roulette
- The randomness in roulette is controlled and calculable, unlike real-world business uncertainty.
- True business risks are unknown because we can't calculate probabilities in an open universe with surprises.
