In this special episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck continues his “What If” series, an exploration of how small decisions and turning points can radically reshape American history. Using the razor-thin 2000 election as a starting point, Chuck explains why counterfactuals are a powerful way to understand how we got here—and how different choices might have altered today’s polarized political landscape. The episode then dives into two alternate histories surrounding the 2020 election, examining the butterfly effects of outcomes that almost happened but didn’t.
First, Chuck asks what America might look like if Donald Trump had lost in 2020 and accepted the result—no “stop the steal,” no January 6th, and a very different Biden presidency likely constrained by a Republican Senate and a weaker Democratic coalition. Then he flips the premise and explores a more provocative scenario: what if Trump had actually won in 2020? With stronger institutional guardrails, a less sycophantic cabinet, and immediate lame-duck pressures, Chuck argues the country may have experienced less chaos at home and abroad, even as major global questions—from Afghanistan to Ukraine—would still loom. The episode ultimately shows how January 6th became a hinge point that reshaped both Biden’s presidency and Trump’s second term, leaving open the unsettling possibility that American politics—and even the 2024 race—could look entirely different today.
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Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
02:45 Why Chuck launched the “What If” series
03:45 The 2000 election started the deep partisan divide in America
05:30 If Florida had a Dem sec of state the election result could be different
07:00 Gore’s decision to only recount certain counties was a mistake
08:15 “What If” examines butterfly effect of political events going differently
10:15 Alternative scenarios are a great way to teach history
11:30 Examining two alternate histories in this What If episode
14:30 What if Trump won in 2020, or accepted his loss in 2020?
16:15 November 2020, Trump was faced with three scenarios
17:00 PART ONE: What if Trump loses, but accepts the loss?
17:30 There’s no stop the steal, fake electors or January 6th
19:00 Trump wouldn’t have been deplatformed on social media
20:00 Trump would likely have faded away like Al Gore did in 2001
21:00 Trump’s grip over GOP tightened because he lost & didn’t accept it
22:30 What Biden presidency looks like if Trump accepted election result
23:15 Democrats may not win both Georgia runoffs & control congress
24:00 Biden’s entire presidency looks different without senate control
25:45 Biden would have been boxed into being a center-left president
27:45 Biden wouldn’t have gotten the “rally around the flag” effect from J6
30:15 Likely the midterms go worse for Dems without ghost of Trump
31:15 Biden likely still doesn’t win second term
32:45 Biden would likely have faced serious primary challenges
34:00 Border might have been handled better with GOP Senate
36:30 The big question would be how much power Trump retained over GOP
37:30 PART TWO: What if Trump had WON in 2020 with the same result as ‘24?
40:00 The GOP would likely have retained senate, Dems get the house
40:30 Mike Pence is still the vice president, staffing at WH would be very different
42:00 The chief of staff would have still put some guardrails around the WH
44:30 There wouldn’t be a cabinet full of Trump sycophants
45:30 There would be no weaponization of ICE after border surge
47:00 Vaccine rollout could have been more chaotic but w/ higher compliance
48:30 There would be early flood of GOP presidential candidates
51:00 Afghanistan withdrawal would fall at Trump’s feet
53:00 Trump’s lame duckness would have kicked in right away
54:30 Strong argument America would be better off if Trump won in 2020
55:45 There’s less tumult in the military, no Hegseth as SecDef
57:30 Trump may have had more ability to reign in Bibi Netanyahu
59:30 Would the Russia/Ukraine war have gone differently? Probably not
1:02:30 Putin may have taken Ukraine piecemeal, but no full scale invasion
1:04:00 Trump still hasn’t acknowledged that Russia is the invader
1:05:30 America may not have shared advance knowledge of invasion
1:09:00 Biden’s governance changed by J6, Trump’s 2nd term massively different
1:13:30 Pete Buttigieg might be president in 2024
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The Chuck ToddCast