Electoral Math and Senate Control in a Trump Win

In this special episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck continues his “What If” series, an exploration of how small decisions and turning points can radically reshape American history. Using the razor-thin 2000 election as a starting point, Chuck explains why counterfactuals are a powerful way to understand how we got here—and how different choices might have altered today’s polarized political landscape. The episode then dives into two alternate histories surrounding the 2020 election, examining the butterfly effects of outcomes that almost happened but didn’t.

First, Chuck asks what America might look like if Donald Trump had lost in 2020 and accepted the result—no “stop the steal,” no January 6th, and a very different Biden presidency likely constrained by a Republican Senate and a weaker Democratic coalition. Then he flips the premise and explores a more provocative scenario: what if Trump had actually won in 2020? With stronger institutional guardrails, a less sycophantic cabinet, and immediate lame-duck pressures, Chuck argues the country may have experienced less chaos at home and abroad, even as major global questions—from Afghanistan to Ukraine—would still loom. The episode ultimately shows how January 6th became a hinge point that reshaped both Biden’s presidency and Trump’s second term, leaving open the unsettling possibility that American politics—and even the 2024 race—could look entirely different today.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 Why Chuck launched the “What If” series

03:45 The 2000 election started the deep partisan divide in America

05:30 If Florida had a Dem sec of state the election result could be different

07:00 Gore’s decision to only recount certain counties was a mistake

08:15 “What If” examines butterfly effect of political events going differently

10:15 Alternative scenarios are a great way to teach history

11:30 Examining two alternate histories in this What If episode

14:30 What if Trump won in 2020, or accepted his loss in 2020?

16:15 November 2020, Trump was faced with three scenarios

17:00 PART ONE: What if Trump loses, but accepts the loss?

17:30 There’s no stop the steal, fake electors or January 6th

19:00 Trump wouldn’t have been deplatformed on social media

20:00 Trump would likely have faded away like Al Gore did in 2001

21:00 Trump’s grip over GOP tightened because he lost & didn’t accept it

22:30 What Biden presidency looks like if Trump accepted election result

23:15 Democrats may not win both Georgia runoffs & control congress

24:00 Biden’s entire presidency looks different without senate control

25:45 Biden would have been boxed into being a center-left president

27:45 Biden wouldn’t have gotten the “rally around the flag” effect from J6

30:15 Likely the midterms go worse for Dems without ghost of Trump

31:15 Biden likely still doesn’t win second term 

32:45 Biden would likely have faced serious primary challenges

34:00 Border might have been handled better with GOP Senate

36:30 The big question would be how much power Trump retained over GOP

37:30 PART TWO: What if Trump had WON in 2020 with the same result as ‘24?

40:00 The GOP would likely have retained senate, Dems get the house

40:30 Mike Pence is still the vice president, staffing at WH would be very different

42:00 The chief of staff would have still put some guardrails around the WH

44:30 There wouldn’t be a cabinet full of Trump sycophants 

45:30 There would be no weaponization of ICE after border surge

47:00 Vaccine rollout could have been more chaotic but w/ higher compliance

48:30 There would be early flood of GOP presidential candidates

51:00 Afghanistan withdrawal would fall at Trump’s feet

53:00 Trump’s lame duckness would have kicked in right away

54:30 Strong argument America would be better off if Trump won in 2020

55:45 There’s less tumult in the military, no Hegseth as SecDef

57:30 Trump may have had more ability to reign in Bibi Netanyahu

59:30 Would the Russia/Ukraine war have gone differently? Probably not

1:02:30 Putin may have taken Ukraine piecemeal, but no full scale invasion

1:04:00 Trump still hasn’t acknowledged that Russia is the invader

1:05:30 America may not have shared advance knowledge of invasion

1:09:00 Biden’s governance changed by J6, Trump’s 2nd term massively different

1:13:30 Pete Buttigieg might be president in 2024

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