GoodFellows: Conversations on Economics, History & Geopolitics Coercive Diplomacy: Venezuela, Iran, and . . . Greenland? | GoodFellows | Hoover Institution
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Jan 8, 2026 
H. R. McMaster, a former U.S. Army lieutenant general and national security advisor, joins historian Sir Niall Ferguson and economist John H. Cochrane for an engaging discussion. They dive into the controversial U.S. operation to capture Venezuela’s president, exploring the implications for regime change and global power dynamics. The trio also examines Iran's crumbling economy amid protests, questioning the likelihood of political transformation in 2026. Additionally, they ponder whether nations like Greenland or Cuba could face similar outcomes, highlighting the fragility in geopolitics.
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Why Trump Chose Coercive Diplomacy
- Trump's decision on Venezuela grew from regional pressure and migration dynamics, not sudden whimsy.
- H. R. McMaster argues coercive diplomacy replaced full nation-building as the chosen alternative.
Military Success Versus Political Uncertainty
- The operation showcased exceptional U.S. military capability while leaving political aftermath uncertain.
- Niall Ferguson warns removing a leader is easier than creating a stable successor amid foreign backers and corruption.
High Risk Of Post-Removal Chaos
- Removing Maduro risks civil conflict from entrenched elites and narco-gangs protecting their interests.
- John H. Cochrane warns limited U.S. intervention likely yields prolonged chaos rather than rapid stabilization.
