Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg Decision-Making Under Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship (with Miles Lasater)
Jan 20, 2021
Miles Lasater, a seasoned founder, venture capitalist, and podcaster, shares his insights on navigating decision-making amid uncertainty. He discusses using mental models and venture patterns to manage risk in startups. Lasater emphasizes the balance between intuition and data analysis, alongside the future collaboration of AI and human intuition. He also explores the dual nature of innovation, where trial and error is essential. Finally, he sheds light on the nuances of philanthropic funding versus innovative startups and the importance of discerning impactful initiatives.
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Decision Analysis
- Use probability and calibrate yourself for better decision-making.
- Train yourself to translate your intuition into numbers for quantitative models.
Calibrating Probabilities
- Probabilistic judgments can range from random to highly intelligent.
- Practice and feedback help refine judgments, moving closer to true probabilities.
Decomposing Problems
- Decompose complex problems into smaller, estimatable parts.
- This improves prediction accuracy and problem-solving.
