In 'Where Good Ideas Come From', Steven Johnson delves into the natural history of innovation by identifying seven key patterns: the adjacent possible, liquid networks, the slow hunch, serendipity, error, exaptation, and platforms. Johnson argues that innovative ideas often result from slow hunches that develop over time through interactions within 'liquid networks' of diverse minds. He also highlights the importance of environments that facilitate the mixing and mingling of ideas, such as big cities, which are more innovative due to their superlinear scaling of creativity. The book draws on historical examples and contemporary cases to illustrate how these patterns contribute to groundbreaking innovations.
In 'How Innovation Works', Matt Ridley argues that innovation is a collective, collaborative, and gradual process that turns inventions into practical and affordable solutions. He emphasizes that innovation is distinct from invention and requires freedom to exchange, experiment, and fail. Ridley draws on numerous historical examples, from steam engines to search engines, to illustrate how innovation speeds up in some sectors and slows down in others. He also highlights the importance of trial and error, persistence, and the role of many individuals rather than solitary geniuses in the innovation process. The book underscores that innovation is crucial for modern prosperity and warns that it can be easily discouraged by political interference.
In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities[3][4][5].
In this groundbreaking book, David Deutsch argues that explanations have a fundamental place in the universe and that improving them is the basic regulating principle of all successful human endeavor. The book takes readers on a journey through various fields of science, history of civilization, art, moral values, and the theory of political institutions. Deutsch explains how we form new explanations and drop bad ones, and discusses the conditions under which progress, which he argues is potentially boundless, can and cannot happen. He emphasizes the importance of good explanations, which he defines as those that are 'hard to vary' and have 'reach', and argues that these explanations are central to the Enlightenment way of thinking and to all scientific and philosophical progress.
Douglas Hubbard's "How to Measure Anything" provides a practical framework for quantifying even the seemingly unmeasurable. The book emphasizes the importance of understanding uncertainty and using Bayesian methods to improve decision-making. Hubbard presents a systematic approach to identifying and addressing sources of uncertainty, helping readers make more informed choices. The book is widely used by professionals in various fields, including business, engineering, and science. It offers valuable insights into the challenges of measurement and the importance of using data effectively to improve decision-making.
How can we better make decisions under uncertainty? What are some of the different ways of being uncertain? What are some powerful venture patterns? How can founders and venture capitalists reduce risk in their startups and portfolios? What is the nature of innovation? How can investing be used to do good in the world?
Miles Lasater has started 3 companies, 2 nonprofits, and 1 family with 4 kids. He has been a founder, VC, angel investor, business school professor, board member, donor, improv comedian, and dancer. He currently is Founding Partner of Purpose Built Ventures and serves on the board of tech nonprofit Curious Learning. Miles also hosts a podcast called Startups for Good (which you can also follow on Twitter at @startups4good). Find out more at mileslasater.com.
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