Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship (with Miles Lasater)

Jan 20, 2021

01:19:20

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Highlights

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Episode notes

Is Entrepreneurship a Learned Skill or Is It Erased?

02:13

Is There a Perverse Incentive to Be a Startup Investor?

01:47

Is There a Growth Mindset About Entrepreneurship?

02:25

Introduction

2min

Are You a Venture Capitalist or Entrepreneur?

2min

Are You Using the Tools of Probability in Venture Capital?

3min

Using Probabilities to Make Better Decisions

2min

Can You Really Get Better at Probabilistic Estimates?

2min

Quantification

3min

Is Your Intuition Better Than Your Model?

2min

The Future of Artificial Intelligence

3min

Using Monte Carlo Simulation in a Venture Capital Market

2min

10.

Using Monte Carlo Simulations to Decompose the Probability of a and B

3min

11.

How to Measure Anything in Business

2min

12.

Are You Using Base Rates to Measure Your Startup?

3min

13.

Super Forecasting Techniques Are Really Powerful

2min

14.

Are You a Fox Versus a Hedgehog?

2min

15.

How to Make Better Decisions With Clearer Thinking

3min

16.

Are Venture Returns Distributed Like a Power Law?

2min

17.

Is There a Bigger Portfolio Size in Venture Capital?

3min

18.

Why LPs Prefer Larger Portfolio Sizes?

2min

19.

Is There a Power Law in Venture Capital?

2min

20.

Is There a Middle Ground Between Venture Capital and Small Business Lending?

2min

21.

Is There Something to Learn From the Power Law Perspective for Entrepreneurs?

2min

22.

Is There a Perverse Incentive to Be a Startup Investor?

2min

23.

The Third Venture Pattern Is the Nature of Innovation

3min

24.

Social Media Is Good, but Sometimes Innovation Is Bad

2min

25.

Venture Capital and Investing in Companies as a Way of Increasing Productivity?

2min

26.

Are You Really Doing Good?

4min

27.

Is Philanthropy the Next Big Thing?

2min

28.

Startups and Non-Profits Have Different Kinds of Misaligned Incentives

2min

29.

Is There a Limit to Innovation?

2min

30.

We've Already Overlooked Our Wisdom

2min

31.

Is Entrepreneurship a Learned Skill or Is It Erased?

2min

32.

How Do You Get From 99% Chance to 50% Chance of Failure?

3min

33.

Is There a Growth Mindset About Entrepreneurship?

2min

34.

How to Build a Successful Co-Founder

2min

35.

Clearer Thinking Podcast - What's Next?

2min

How can we better make decisions under uncertainty? What are some of the different ways of being uncertain? What are some powerful venture patterns? How can founders and venture capitalists reduce risk in their startups and portfolios? What is the nature of innovation? How can investing be used to do good in the world?

Miles Lasater has started 3 companies, 2 nonprofits, and 1 family with 4 kids. He has been a founder, VC, angel investor, business school professor, board member, donor, improv comedian, and dancer. He currently is Founding Partner of Purpose Built Ventures and serves on the board of tech nonprofit Curious Learning. Miles also hosts a podcast called Startups for Good (which you can also follow on Twitter at @startups4good). Find out more at mileslasater.com.

Staff