Annie Duke: decision making

10 snips

Nov 21, 2022

Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and expert in decision science, dives deep into the art of decision-making. She emphasizes the significance of pre-planning, especially in uncertain situations like investing and dieting. Duke explores the intricacies of balancing intuition and analysis, stressing the need for emotional awareness. She also discusses how outcomes can mislead decision quality and highlights psychological challenges investors face, advocating for strategies rooted in personal values and risk understanding.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Books

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Decisions as Forecasts

Every decision is a forecast, and its quality depends on framing, exploration, and information.
Embrace uncertainty; avoid excessive analysis and impulsive decisions.

INSIGHT

Resulting vs. Base Rates

Resulting is judging decisions based on limited outcomes while ignoring luck and volatility.
Base rates from large samples provide better future predictions, but consider potential paradigm shifts.

ADVICE

Integrating Past Performance

Use past performance as a starting point, not a guarantee, when developing investment theses.
Combine data with your thesis and experience, while staying open to new information.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

How to Decide

Annie Duke

Thinking in bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Annie Duke

In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes. She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias. Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions. The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making[1][3][5].

Quit

The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away

Annie Duke

Winning the loser's game

Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing

Charles D. Ellis

In 'Winning the Loser's Game,' Charles D. Ellis explains that investing has become a 'loser's game' where the outcome is determined by the mistakes of the loser, rather than the skills of the winner. Ellis advocates for a focus on developing and adhering to wise and appropriate investment policies, emphasizing the importance of understanding client needs, avoiding high fees, and investing for the long term. The book includes updated chapters on bond investing, investor behavior, and the impact of technology on investment decisions, while reinforcing core principles of successful investing such as indexing and reducing costs.

Inside Vanguard

Leadership Secrets from the Company that Continues to Rewrite the Rules of the Investing Business

Charles D. Ellis

Charles Ellis's "Inside Vanguard" delves into the leadership principles and strategies that propelled Vanguard's success in the investment management industry. The book offers insights into the company's culture, decision-making processes, and commitment to client service. It explores how Vanguard's unique structure and focus on low-cost index funds have revolutionized the investment world. Ellis highlights the importance of long-term vision, ethical leadership, and a client-centric approach. The book serves as a valuable case study for businesses seeking to build sustainable success.