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From Take-Privates to AI: Mapping the New Market Cycle with Scott Voss

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Oct 9, 2025

Guest

Scott Voss

Scott Voss, Managing Partner at HarbourVest, explores the evolving landscape of private and public markets. He highlights the rise of mega ventures like SpaceX, contrasting them with traditional firms. Voss dives into the surge of take-private deals, explaining the strategic pivot companies make when escaping quarterly pressures. He discusses the vital role of private credit as a market player and its implications for liquidity. Lastly, he sheds light on how AI deals are reshaping investment strategies, marking an exciting new phase in private equity.

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insights

INSIGHT

Public Versus Private Tradeoffs

Being public means daily pricing and liquidity while private means quarterly pricing and illiquidity.
Companies choose the market that fits their lifecycle and operational predictability.

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INSIGHT

The Rise Of Mega Venture

We now have 'traditional venture' and a distinct 'mega venture' cohort valued at tens to hundreds of billions.
Mega venture firms keep huge companies private, shifting the top global company list toward private names.

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INSIGHT

Public Company Count Has Fallen

The number of public companies has declined substantially over the last two decades.
Consolidation, delistings, and take-privates explain roughly a 40% drop in public listings.

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The Blurring Line Between Public and Private

06:42 • 3min

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Mega Venture vs. Traditional Venture

09:26 • 3min

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The Shrinking Number of Public Companies

12:27 • 43sec

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Why Companies Go Private and the Take-Private Playbook

Examples of Take-Privates and Re-IPO Stories

20:01 • 3min

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Scale and Returns Expectations for Take-Privates

22:52 • 17sec

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Size of the Private Equity Backed Universe

23:09 • 53sec

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Secondaries and the Rise of GP-Led Deals

24:02 • 3min

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Who Buys Large Secondary Portfolios

27:04 • 3min

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How Interest Rates and Debt Markets Affect Liquidity

30:11 • 3min

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Defining Private Credit and Its Market Role

33:19 • 1min

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How Private Credit Interacts with GP-Led and Sponsor Deals

34:44 • 1min

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Rate Impact on Purchase Multiples and Deal Structure

36:03 • 1min

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Major Private Credit Providers and Risks

37:03 • 2min

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Syndicated Loans vs Private Credit in Workouts

39:11 • 1min

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Evergreen and Permanent Capital Explained

40:40 • 4min

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Accessing Value from Long-Private Winners

44:49 • 1min

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Making Private Markets Accessible to Wealth Investors

46:10 • 1min

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Why Founders Care About Who's on the Cap Table

47:31 • 16sec

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AI Deals, Consolidation, and Strategic Acquisitions

47:47 • 4min

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Blockchain, Tokenization, and Infrastructure Opportunities

51:38 • 2min

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Balancing CapEx for AI and Financial Stability

53:40 • 1min

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Venture Math and the Upside/Downside Fallacy

55:07 • 27sec

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Nostalgia, Life Phases, and Personal Reflection

55:34 • 5min

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Personal Stories and Advice for Young Professionals

01:00:48 • 42sec

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Surfing Trip and Closing Personal Notes

Private markets are swelling, public markets are shrinking, and the line between the two has never been blurrier. In this episode, CJ sits down with Scott Voss, Managing Partner at HarbourVest, to make sense of what’s happening across venture, private equity, credit, and secondaries. Scott explains why companies like SpaceX and OpenAI are now valued alongside public giants, how the surge in take-privates is reshaping corporate strategy, and what happens when the quarterly earnings pressure disappears. They dive into the rise of GP-led deals, the evolving role of private credit as the “third voice in the room,” and why liquidity—not scarcity—will define this cycle. Scott also breaks down the growing appeal of evergreen and permanent capital structures, plus what AI mega-deals signal about the next phase of private investing.

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LINKS:

Scott Voss on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-voss-b91b94/

HarbourVest Partners: https://www.harbourvest.com

CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

RELATED EPISODES:

Secondaries, Continuation Vehicles, and Sidecar Funds: Private Equity with HarbourVest’s Scott Voss -

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00:00) Preview and Intro

(00:02:49) Sponsor – Mercury | RightRev | Tipalti

(00:06:43) Opening Conversation

(00:07:23) The Blurring Line Between Public and Private

(00:09:36) The Rise of Mega Venture

(00:11:20) The First $10 Trillion Company

(00:12:28) The Shrinking Public Markets

(00:13:09) Take-Private Playbook

(00:14:04) Why Companies Go Private

(00:16:00) Sponsor – Aleph | Rillet | Fidelity Private Shares

(00:19:21) Efficiency and Exits

(00:23:15) Liquidity in Private Markets

(00:24:01) Secondaries and GP-Led Deals

(00:27:14) Yale and the Secondary Market

(00:29:09) Innovation and the Rise of GP-to-GP Trades

(00:30:16) Liquidity Cycles and Interest Rates

(00:33:18) The Third Voice in the Room – Private Credit

(00:34:44) Private Credit and GP-Led Deals

(00:36:02) Interest Rates and Deal Spreads

(00:37:15) The Major Players in Private Credit

(00:38:09) Regulation and Risk

(00:39:25) Private Credit vs. Traditional Lending

(00:40:33) Evergreen and Permanent Capital

(00:45:57) Expanding Access to Private Markets

(00:47:03) Understanding the Cap Table

(00:47:44) AI Deals and Consolidation

(00:50:00) The Evolution of AI and Blockchain

(00:53:20) Funding Innovation and Risk

(00:55:28) Lessons From Investing

(00:55:39) Nostalgia and Life Phases

(00:57:06) Nostalgia and the 1990s

(00:59:21) Learn, Earn, and Return

(01:00:45) Talking Nostalgia at Dinners

(01:01:27) Summer Surfing

(01:02:25) Wrap-Up and Closing

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#RunTheNumbersPodcast #PrivateMarkets #VentureCapital #TakePrivate #FinanceLeadership

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

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