Venture Math and the Upside/Downside Fallacy

Private markets are swelling, public markets are shrinking, and the line between the two has never been blurrier. In this episode, CJ sits down with Scott Voss, Managing Partner at HarbourVest, to make sense of what’s happening across venture, private equity, credit, and secondaries. Scott explains why companies like SpaceX and OpenAI are now valued alongside public giants, how the surge in take-privates is reshaping corporate strategy, and what happens when the quarterly earnings pressure disappears. They dive into the rise of GP-led deals, the evolving role of private credit as the “third voice in the room,” and why liquidity—not scarcity—will define this cycle. Scott also breaks down the growing appeal of evergreen and permanent capital structures, plus what AI mega-deals signal about the next phase of private investing.

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LINKS:

Scott Voss on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-voss-b91b94/

HarbourVest Partners: https://www.harbourvest.com

CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

RELATED EPISODES:

Secondaries, Continuation Vehicles, and Sidecar Funds: Private Equity with HarbourVest’s Scott Voss -

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00:00) Preview and Intro

(00:02:49) Sponsor – Mercury | RightRev | Tipalti

(00:06:43) Opening Conversation

(00:07:23) The Blurring Line Between Public and Private

(00:09:36) The Rise of Mega Venture

(00:11:20) The First $10 Trillion Company

(00:12:28) The Shrinking Public Markets

(00:13:09) Take-Private Playbook

(00:14:04) Why Companies Go Private

(00:16:00) Sponsor – Aleph | Rillet | Fidelity Private Shares

(00:19:21) Efficiency and Exits

(00:23:15) Liquidity in Private Markets

(00:24:01) Secondaries and GP-Led Deals

(00:27:14) Yale and the Secondary Market

(00:29:09) Innovation and the Rise of GP-to-GP Trades

(00:30:16) Liquidity Cycles and Interest Rates

(00:33:18) The Third Voice in the Room – Private Credit

(00:34:44) Private Credit and GP-Led Deals

(00:36:02) Interest Rates and Deal Spreads

(00:37:15) The Major Players in Private Credit

(00:38:09) Regulation and Risk

(00:39:25) Private Credit vs. Traditional Lending

(00:40:33) Evergreen and Permanent Capital

(00:45:57) Expanding Access to Private Markets

(00:47:03) Understanding the Cap Table

(00:47:44) AI Deals and Consolidation

(00:50:00) The Evolution of AI and Blockchain

(00:53:20) Funding Innovation and Risk

(00:55:28) Lessons From Investing

(00:55:39) Nostalgia and Life Phases

(00:57:06) Nostalgia and the 1990s

(00:59:21) Learn, Earn, and Return

(01:00:45) Talking Nostalgia at Dinners

(01:01:27) Summer Surfing

(01:02:25) Wrap-Up and Closing

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#RunTheNumbersPodcast #PrivateMarkets #VentureCapital #TakePrivate #FinanceLeadership

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