Gavin Friend, a market expert, shares his insights on recent rally trends in US shares amidst mixed economic news. He discusses the crucial link between market optimism and potential Fed rate cuts, emphasizing the risks if no cuts are indicated. Gavin also examines the weak performance of the US dollar, the impact on oil prices, and how political uncertainties shape currency trades. Additionally, he highlights key upcoming data like Canada's CPI and its implications for global markets and interest rates.
US shares experience a rally, driven by hopes of upcoming rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and cautious trading volumes.
New Zealand's economy shows signs of struggle, with services index improvement overshadowed by potential contraction and cautious rate-cut approaches.
Deep dives
US Market Movements and Anticipated Rate Cuts
US shares are showing positive trends, with the NASDAQ up 1.4% and the S&P 1% higher, as expectations rise for potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve starting in September. This optimism is driven by low trading volumes, approximately 30% below the 30-day average, suggesting cautious investor sentiment. The US dollar has weakened, down 0.6% and reaching its lowest point since January, while other currencies like the Euro and the Pound have seen slight increases. Such movements indicate that markets are bracing for more clarity on monetary policy following upcoming events, particularly the Jackson Hole symposium and the Fed's critical meeting in September.
New Zealand's Economic Challenges
New Zealand's economic indicators reflect ongoing struggles, with the services index improving but remaining below the contraction threshold. The performance services index rose from 40.7 to 44.6, but levels below 50 indicate continued decline in the sector. Year-over-year machine orders are down, and the overall economic climate suggests that New Zealand is facing significant challenges, with predictions of another contraction in Q3. The remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Deputy Governor highlight the cautious approach to rate cuts, though further economic softness may pressure officials to consider larger cuts.
Canada's Inflation and Potential Rate Cuts
Canada's inflation metrics indicate a low economic growth environment, prompting speculation about further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. With core inflation figures remaining below 1% and rising unemployment now at 6.4%, the market is pricing a potential cut in interest rates toward the end of the year. Despite this, the Canadian economy still shows some signs of resilience, such as expected increases in residential investment and consumption. If the Bank of Canada opts for a 50 basis point cut ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll report and the Fed meeting, it could signal a significant shift in monetary policy that markets would closely monitor.
We are in the thick of the US and European holiday season, mixed with a dearth of data. Hence, shares are pushing higher, presumably on the hope of greater reassurance around rate cuts from the Fed at Jackson Hole. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets wouldn’t react well if there isn’t some indication that September cuts are on the cards. Meanwhile the US dollar drifts lower, oil takes a hit and bonds remain fairly flat. Today Canada’s CPI is the main data point, whilst we’ll be looking for any additional colour in the latest minutes from the RBA.