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NAB Morning Call

Shares Rally In Northern Hiatus

Aug 19, 2024
Gavin Friend, a market expert, shares his insights on recent rally trends in US shares amidst mixed economic news. He discusses the crucial link between market optimism and potential Fed rate cuts, emphasizing the risks if no cuts are indicated. Gavin also examines the weak performance of the US dollar, the impact on oil prices, and how political uncertainties shape currency trades. Additionally, he highlights key upcoming data like Canada's CPI and its implications for global markets and interest rates.
15:54

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • US shares experience a rally, driven by hopes of upcoming rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and cautious trading volumes.
  • New Zealand's economy shows signs of struggle, with services index improvement overshadowed by potential contraction and cautious rate-cut approaches.

Deep dives

US Market Movements and Anticipated Rate Cuts

US shares are showing positive trends, with the NASDAQ up 1.4% and the S&P 1% higher, as expectations rise for potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve starting in September. This optimism is driven by low trading volumes, approximately 30% below the 30-day average, suggesting cautious investor sentiment. The US dollar has weakened, down 0.6% and reaching its lowest point since January, while other currencies like the Euro and the Pound have seen slight increases. Such movements indicate that markets are bracing for more clarity on monetary policy following upcoming events, particularly the Jackson Hole symposium and the Fed's critical meeting in September.

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