U.S. Treasury Issuance To Exceed $1.1 Trillion (Gross) In Second Quarter, Predicts Plumbing Savant John Comiskey

Jan 29, 2024

Plumbing savant John Comiskey predicts U.S. Treasury issuance to exceed $1.1 trillion in Q2 2024. Topics include understanding the balance sheet discrepancy, Bitcoin as a macro asset, forecasting the monetary system, and the goals of the U.S. Treasury.

Ask episode

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

Introduction

00:00 • 4min

Understanding the Balance Sheet Discrepancy

03:56 • 23min

Bitcoin as a Macro Asset and U.S. Treasury Borrowing Projections

27:20 • 4min

U.S. Treasury Issuance and Forecasting the Monetary System

30:52 • 5min

US Treasury Goals and Metrics

36:10 • 28min

Institutional Crypto Conference and Doubts About Quantitative Tightening

01:04:12 • 2min

The Relationship Between RRP and Bank Reserves

01:06:40 • 12min

Mechanics of Treasury Funding and Getting Started in Understanding Treasury Operations

01:18:46 • 4min

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/

John Comiskey’s day job does not involve processing reams of data on the daily deposits and withdrawals of the U.S. Treasury’s bank account in order to predict how much the U.S. government will borrow and when. He does that at night. Comiskey joins Forward Guidance to share how he taught himself the workings of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet before realizing that most of the action was at the Treasury, not the Fed. Comiskey shares in great detail the predictions about how much the U.S.Treasury will borrow in 2024. Filmed on January 24, 2024.

Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77

John Comiskey’s Substack: https://johncomiskey.substack.com/

Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:14) John's Start In Market Plumbing (Why Fed's Listed Balance Sheet Originally Didn't Go Down When Quantitative Tightening Started in 2022)

(06:02) Debt Ceiling Ex Date In 2023

(09:27) Treasurys: Coupons vs. Bills

(15:30) The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) In November 2023

(22:36) Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (1.1 Trillion of Gross Issuance, Comiskey Expects)

(27:20) VanEck Ad

(36:12) The Goals And Obligations Of The U.S. Treasury

(43:51) Why Is The U.S. Deficit So Large?

(53:19) Some States Have Been Very Late With Paying Their Taxes

(59:34) The U.S. Fiscal Deficit in 2024 and Beyond

(01:04:40) Comiskey's Doubts That The Fed Will End Quantitative Tightening (QT) As Early As Some Expect

(01:11:49) Is This All Sustainable?

(01:16:51) Concluding Thoughts

(01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.