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Forward Guidance
U.S. Treasury Issuance To Exceed $1.1 Trillion (Gross) In Second Quarter, Predicts Plumbing Savant John Comiskey
Jan 29, 2024
01:22:43
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Plumbing savant John Comiskey predicts U.S. Treasury issuance to exceed $1.1 trillion in Q2 2024. Topics include understanding the balance sheet discrepancy, Bitcoin as a macro asset, forecasting the monetary system, and the goals of the U.S. Treasury.
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Quick takeaways
- Treasury focuses on paying bills, risk management, and minimizing the cost of issuance.
- Cash flow model predicts day-to-day cash flows by considering historical spending and tax flow patterns.
Deep dives
Treasury Funding and Objectives
The treasury primarily focuses on paying bills, risk management, minimizing the cost of issuance, and managing the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance. Social security benefit checks, healthcare trust fund payments, defense spending, and federal salaries are some of the top spending categories. The treasury aims to keep the TGA above the minimum required level while avoiding excessive accumulation. Higher interest expense, increased issuance of coupons, and larger debt have contributed to the larger deficit compared to 2019.
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