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John Comiskey’s day job does not involve processing reams of data on the daily deposits and withdrawals of the U.S. Treasury’s bank account in order to predict how much the U.S. government will borrow and when. He does that at night. Comiskey joins Forward Guidance to share how he taught himself the workings of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet before realizing that most of the action was at the Treasury, not the Fed. Comiskey shares in great detail the predictions about how much the U.S.Treasury will borrow in 2024. Filmed on January 24, 2024.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:14) John's Start In Market Plumbing (Why Fed's Listed Balance Sheet Originally Didn't Go Down When Quantitative Tightening Started in 2022)
(06:02) Debt Ceiling Ex Date In 2023
(09:27) Treasurys: Coupons vs. Bills
(15:30) The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) In November 2023
(22:36) Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (1.1 Trillion of Gross Issuance, Comiskey Expects)
(27:20) VanEck Ad
(36:12) The Goals And Obligations Of The U.S. Treasury
(43:51) Why Is The U.S. Deficit So Large?
(53:19) Some States Have Been Very Late With Paying Their Taxes
(59:34) The U.S. Fiscal Deficit in 2024 and Beyond
(01:04:40) Comiskey's Doubts That The Fed Will End Quantitative Tightening (QT) As Early As Some Expect
(01:11:49) Is This All Sustainable?
(01:16:51) Concluding Thoughts
(01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
