Join Klaus Dallerup, a McKinsey Senior Partner renowned for his insights on global banking trends, and Pradip Patiath, another Senior Partner specializing in digital financial services, as they explore the future of banking. They discuss the industry's recent profitability contrasted with emerging skepticism. Key topics include the productivity challenges banks face despite tech investments, the intense competition for talent, and the transformative potential of cryptocurrency. Discover strategies for navigating volatility and evolving client expectations in this dynamic landscape.
Despite significant profitability in global banking, labor productivity has declined, raising concerns about efficiency despite substantial technology investments.
Banks face competitive pressure from fintech and big tech, necessitating a strategic rethink to adapt to evolving market dynamics and customer expectations.
Deep dives
Current Banking Success and Profitability
The banking sector is currently experiencing significant profitability, generating around $7 trillion in revenue globally, which makes it one of the largest profit-generating industries. This success is largely attributed to improved interest rates and net margins that have enhanced banks' financial health compared to previous years. Banks have also adapted by focusing on less risky assets, contributing to their stronger balance sheets and overall resilience. Furthermore, the global banking industry has over $400 trillion in assets, emphasizing its crucial role in facilitating commerce worldwide.
Challenges with Labor Productivity
Despite the overall profitability, labor productivity within the banking sector has seen a troubling decline, contrasting with gains in other industries. Banking productivity has decreased by 4% over the past fifteen years, while other sectors like professional services have seen increases between 15% to 25%. This decline raises concerns, especially given the substantial technology investments amounting to approximately $600 billion globally, which have not led to expected efficiency gains. Legacy systems and increasing bank sizes contribute to these productivity issues, indicating that merely spending on technology is not enough to drive improvements.
Navigating Macroeconomic Volatility and Competition
Banks must remain vigilant in addressing the evolving macroeconomic environment as geopolitical tensions and digital innovations present both risks and opportunities. The rise of fintech and big tech companies creates competitive pressure, emphasizing the need for traditional banks to rethink their strategies and value propositions. While established banks possess regulatory advantages, they must also adapt to stay relevant amidst new entrants offering streamlined, customer-friendly solutions. Additionally, banks should prepare for potential disruptions from central bank digital currencies and innovations in technology that can transform financial services.
Banking has had a couple of very good years—the best, in fact, since the global financial crisis of 2007–09. Yet to some, the industry’s outlook seems less buoyant than recent profitability might suggest. On this episode of The McKinsey Podcast, McKinsey Senior Partners Klaus Dallerup and Pradip Patiath speak with McKinsey Global Editorial Director Lucia Rahilly about McKinsey’s latest global banking annual review, breaking down the sources of skepticism, the risks and opportunities of a changing landscape, and lessons leaders can take from banks that have consistently outperformed over the past decade.