UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Details matter'
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Sep 10, 2025 Geopolitical events are stirring the pot, yet markets remain largely unfazed. For instance, an Israeli strike in Qatar barely nudged oil prices. Tensions between Russia and Poland are similarly brushed aside. Meanwhile, a new prime minister in France could signal change, though markets seem skeptical. In China, economic conditions persist amidst deflation. The conversation also highlights US manufacturers' stockpiling, the ongoing battle against inflation, and how past payroll data could sway the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
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Markets Largely Ignore Geopolitical Noise
- Geopolitical events recently made headlines but moved markets only marginally.
- Investors treat incidents like Israel's strike in Qatar and Russian incursions as confined, not market-changing.
Political Churn Can Stall Business Decisions
- Political changes in France won't automatically shift market expectations for policy.
- Policy uncertainty can still cause businesses to delay decisions, harming economic activity.
China's Deflation Is Food-Led, Not Systemic
- China's August consumer and producer prices showed notable weakness and food-driven consumer deflation.
- A sharp fall in food prices doesn't necessarily signal economy-wide deflation requiring urgent policy action.