Geopolitical Impacts on Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators

Geopolitics is making headlines, but is generally ignored by markets. Israel’s air strike in Qatar moved the oil price a small amount, but investors are not pricing meaningful supply disruption. Reports of Russian incursions into Polish airspace are similarly downplayed. France has a new prime minister—Lecornu. While markets are not likely to bet on policy change, the US experience demonstrates the drag that policy uncertainty can have on corporate activity.