Ukraine peace talks: what do Russia and US really want?
Feb 18, 2025
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In this conversation, Bronwen Maddox, Director of Chatham House, and Lindsey Hilsum, Channel 4 News’ International Editor, dive into the complex Ukraine peace talks in Saudi Arabia. They discuss the stark absence of Ukrainian representation and the implications of American and Russian strategies. The dialogue explores the economic motivations influencing these negotiations, the need for a united approach involving Europe, and the shifting dynamics of international relations, highlighting the tensions that shape global diplomacy today.
The exclusion of Ukraine and European nations from initial peace talks highlights the complexities and inequities in international diplomatic negotiations regarding the conflict.
The differing strategies of the US and Russia underscore a power imbalance, with Russia aiming to reclaim influence, while the US remains focused on economic interests and relationships.
Deep dives
The Dynamics of Peace Negotiations
The ongoing peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia reveal complex dynamics, especially highlighting the absence of crucial parties such as Ukraine and European nations from the initial talks hosted by Saudi Arabia. The juxtaposition of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov facing each other symbolizes a significant moment in international diplomacy, where the two dominant powers appear to control the narrative without the input of those directly affected by the conflict. The motivations of the negotiators are also under scrutiny, with discussions centering around how the US seeks to balance its interests in Ukraine's resources while simultaneously managing its relationship with Russia. This situation raises questions about fairness and inclusivity in mediating a resolution that would ultimately benefit all involved parties, rather than just the major powers at the negotiating table.
Contrasting Diplomatic Strategies
The differences in diplomatic strategies between the US and Russia become evident when examining their respective goals and approaches to the ongoing conflict. Russia's ambition is clear; it aims to reclaim its influence over Ukraine and lift sanctions while securing a compliant government in Kyiv. On the other hand, the US appears to lack a cohesive strategy, with its interests seemingly focused on economic gains and strengthening relationships rather than addressing the core issues that prompted the conflict in the first place. Such disparities may enable Russia to manipulate the situation to its advantage, particularly given its history of adept manipulation in diplomatic negotiations.
The Role of Resource Economics
One key insight from the discussions centers around the economic implications of Ukraine’s natural resources and how they factor into the negotiations. Ukrainian President Zelensky had initially proposed the idea of leveraging Ukraine's rare earth materials in exchange for security guarantees from the US, highlighting the transactional nature of modern diplomacy. However, the US's acceptance of this offer raises eyebrows, suggesting a shift where Ukraine's resources are viewed as a means to repay past assistance rather than protect its sovereignty going forward. This focus on resources underscores the broader theme of economic relationships over political integrity, potentially jeopardizing Ukraine's autonomy and complicating the negotiation landscape further.
America’s Marco Rubio and Russia’s Sergey Lavrov have met in Saudi Arabia for Ukraine war peace talks. The US says a peace deal must be "fair, enduring and acceptable to all the parties involved" - not that all the parties - like Ukraine or the Europeans - were invited by Donald Trump to the first round of the talks.
So what do Russia and the US really want to get out from it? And will Russia be brought in from the cold internationally?
To discuss this on this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Bronwen Maddox, the Director of the international think tank Chatham House, and Channel 4 News’ International Editor Lindsey Hilsum.
Produced by Silvia Maresca, Ka Yee Mak and Rob Thomson.
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