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Why you should take more risks, with Nate Silver
Sep 17, 2024
Nate Silver, a renowned statistician, writer, and poker player, shares his insights on taking risks in our careers. He discusses the importance of understanding risk and how fear often clouds our judgment. Silver emphasizes that embracing calculated risks can lead to greater opportunities and personal growth. He also explores how age can influence decision-making, likening it to strategies in poker. Additionally, he challenges common workplace stereotypes and advocates for structured evaluations to enhance individual contributions.
17:30
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Quick takeaways
- Understanding risk-taking provides a framework to evaluate decisions by focusing on expected value rather than succumbing to fear of failure.
- Adopting a 'river' mentality encourages calculated risks and innovation, contrasting with the cautious 'village' approach that limits professional growth.
Deep dives
Understanding Risk and Expected Value
Risk-taking behaviors are crucial in professional settings, as they often involve making calculated bets based on potential outcomes. The concept of expected value (EV) helps illustrate how one can evaluate decisions by weighing their possible returns against associated risks. For instance, accepting a job offer that doubles one’s salary but comes with a high-stress environment and a 10% chance of termination may still represent a positive expected value given the significant benefits 90% of the time. Recognizing that most individuals tend to be overly cautious can empower them to make bolder, more rational choices in their careers.
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