#512 - Will MacAskill - How Long Could Humanity Continue For?
Aug 13, 2022
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Will MacAskill, a philosopher and co-founder of Effective Altruism, discusses the importance of long-term thinking for humanity's future. He explores existential risks, the implications of technological advancements, and the need for moral flexibility in governance. MacAskill emphasizes how today's actions can shape the lives of trillions to come. He also critiques societal norms, like the 'Happy Birthday' song, and advocates for proactive measures to ensure a thriving future while navigating potential threats like engineered pandemics.
Long-term thinking emphasizes the need to consider the impact of our actions on future generations.
The risk of extinction underscores the importance of safeguarding civilization and advancing beneficial technologies.
Population growth's role in spreading extinction risk and the need for differential technological development for a safer future.
Deep dives
Importance of Long-Term Thinking and Future Generations
Long-term thinking emphasizes the need to consider the impact of our actions on future generations. It questions how our decisions today will affect the world in 100,000 years or even 8 billion years, highlighting the significance of leaving a positive legacy for our descendants. The podcast discusses the critical juncture we face in shaping the 'history of the future,' stressing the importance of avoiding values that could lead to catastrophic outcomes.
Risk of Extinction and Technological Stagnation
The risk of extinction, whether through engineered pandemics or global civilizational collapse, underscores the importance of safeguarding civilization and advancing beneficial technologies. The podcast explores the potential dangers posed by technological stagnation, emphasizing the need for continued innovation to counter existential risks effectively.
Impact of Population Growth and Technological Progress
Population growth's role in spreading extinction risk is discussed, with insights on how having a larger and more diverse population could potentially mitigate threats. The discussion delves into the balancing act of maintaining technological progress while addressing risks, highlighting the need for differential technological development to ensure a safer future.
Concerns About Climate Change and Environmental Stewardship
The attention given to climate change and environmental stewardship is seen as a positive shift towards considering long-term impacts. The podcast explores the importance of addressing climate change and biodiversity loss as part of broader efforts to protect future generations and preserve the planet for a sustainable future.
Existential Risks and Climate Change Prioritization
The podcast discusses the varying levels of existential risks, ranging from supernova explosions to climate change to engineered pandemics. There is concern that the focus on climate change has overshadowed other existential risks like AI safety. The narrative highlights the shift in mainstream attention from climate change to other existential risks like AI safety, emphasizing the need for balanced prioritization.
Civilizational Collapse and Moral Progress
The episode delves into the topic of civilizational collapse, exploring the likelihood of recovery post-collapse. It underscores that history shows local catastrophes rarely lead to global collapse. The discourse suggests that through technological advancements and access to stored knowledge, there is a high probability that civilization would bounce back from a collapse. Additionally, the discussion touches on the importance of investing in moral progress to parallel technological advancements for a stable future.
Will MacAskill is a philosopher, ethicist, and one of the originators of the Effective Altruism movement.
Humans understand that long term thinking is a good idea, that we need to provide a good place for future generations to live. We try to leave the world better than when we arrived for this very reason. But what about the world in one hundred thousand years? Or 8 billion? If there's trillions of human lives still to come, how should that change the way we act right now?
Expect to learn why we're living through a particularly crucial time in the history of the future, the dangers of locking in any set of values, how to avoid the future being ruled by a malevolent dictator, whether the world has too many or too few people on it, how likely a global civilisational collapse is, why technological stagnation is a death sentence and much more...
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