Excess Returns Big Decline. Big Rally. What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next | Katie Stockton
Jun 2, 2025
Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, shares her expertise on technical analysis and market trends. She discusses the current duality of a secular bull market and cyclical bear, revealing insights on U.S. and international equities. Key topics include sector rotations, market breadth implications, and the strategic positioning of her TACK ETF. Stockton also dives into the outlook for commodities like gold and crude oil, and offers her take on Bitcoin's potential breakout amidst evolving macroeconomic signals.
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Secular Bull Meets Cyclical Bear
- The market setup is a secular bull with a cyclical bear underway. 2025 is expected to be an off year with heightened volatility and a challenging equity environment.
- Both short-term and long-term technical indicators show signs of exhaustion in the equity market, suggesting cautious positioning.
Charts Cut Through Market Noise
- Use charts to distinguish between meaningful market moves and noise.
- Trust that charts reflect supply-demand dynamics at the moment, helping manage emotional reaction to events.
Price Gaps Signal Market Moves
- Price gaps are crucial technical signals in volatile markets.
- A gap down often marks exhaustion, while a gap up suggests a breakout; closing gaps quickly can indicate weakness.