Navigating Market Trends Through Technical Analysis

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, for a deep dive into the current state of the market through the lens of technical analysis. Katie walks us through her outlook on U.S. and international equities, key sector rotations, and the signals her indicators are sending about what’s next. We also explore the strategy behind her tactical ETF (TACK) and how investors can use chart-based insights to manage risk and identify opportunities in a complex macro environment.

📌 Topics Covered:

The current technical setup: secular bull, cyclical bear

How to interpret gaps, indicators, and moving averages

Weakening market breadth and its implications

Sector rotation: what’s working and what’s not

The outlook for international vs. U.S. markets

Sentiment extremes and the "fear & greed" indicators

Technical setups in commodities: crude oil and gold

Thoughts on Bitcoin, the dollar, and bond spreads

How the TACK ETF applies technical signals in practice