Face-Off: The U.S. vs China The Rugby Gambit
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Dec 16, 2025 
In this engaging discussion, Oliver Nobetau, a Papua New Guinea government lawyer and Lowy Institute fellow, sheds light on a unique rugby deal that links sports diplomacy to national security. He explains how a $600 million rugby franchise for PNG guarantees no Chinese military presence. Meanwhile, Rana Mitter, a Harvard professor, provides historical context on China's ambitions in the Pacific. The conversation dives into the strategic value of Papua New Guinea, the implications of newfound defense agreements, and sports as a tool for geopolitical leverage.
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Rugby Match Sets The Scene
- Jane Perlez describes attending a hot, enthusiastic rugby match in Papua New Guinea where fans live and breathe the sport.
- The PNG crowd's passion framed the $600 million NRL deal as both cultural pride and geopolitical bargaining chip.
Sport As Strategic Leverage
- The NRL franchise deal required PNG to agree not to sign security pacts with China.
- That sports-for-security trade shows sports diplomacy can be leveraged to lock out strategic rivals.
Fast-Tracked Defense Diplomacy
- Oliver Nobetau explains the rugby deal took a decade, while the defense treaty was negotiated in months.
- The speed difference reflects heightened concern and urgency about China in 2025.
