At Any Rate

US Rates – There’s no crying in basis

7 snips
Apr 10, 2025
Jay Barry is the Head of Global Rates Strategy at J.P. Morgan, while Srini Ramaswamy leads their Global Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy. They delve into the recent historic volatility in US rates markets, spurred by tariff impacts and liquidity concerns. The duo discusses the surprising stability in cash/futures basis despite declining overall market liquidity. They unravel complexities in swap spreads and analyze the unexpected drop in core CPI, exploring how these trends could influence future economic risks and Federal Reserve actions.
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INSIGHT

Historic Treasury Sell-Off

  • The 30-year treasury yields rose by roughly 60 basis points amidst falling risk assets.
  • This sell-off was considered historic and raised questions about its underlying causes.
INSIGHT

Trigger of the Sell-Off

  • The sell-off was likely triggered by the President's Rose Garden announcement, impacting treasury valuations.
  • Market implied Fed and long-run inflation expectations remained relatively stable despite the sell-off.
INSIGHT

Shift in Treasury Demand

  • The treasury market is undergoing a demand shift away from traditional investors like the Fed and foreign entities.
  • This shift towards price-sensitive demand leads to higher term premiums and affects the yield curve.
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