You Are Not So Smart 315 - May Contain Lies - Alex Edmans
52 snips
Jun 9, 2025 
In this engaging discussion, Alex Edmans, a finance professor at London Business School and author of 'May Contain Lies,' uncovers how narratives and statistics can mislead us. He dives into the Ladder of Misinference and how our biases shape decision-making. Exploring confirmation bias, he illustrates how even rational thinkers can fall prey to it. Edmans emphasizes the need for critical thinking and skepticism to navigate misinformation in business and personal life, urging listeners to embrace nuance over simplistic beliefs.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Brain's Guesswork Creates False Certainty
- Our brains constantly guess to make sense of the world using prior experiences, biases, and context.
- These guesses feel like knowledge but can produce false beliefs when stopped early by cognitive shortcuts.
Two Sides of Confirmation Bias
- Confirmation bias involves uncritical acceptance of information that aligns with desires and dismissal of opposing facts.
- It includes both biased interpretation and selective search for agreeable information.
Ignoring Risks Leads to Disaster
- Deepwater Horizon rig was unsafe, but negative test failures were dismissed to avoid the truth.
- Silicon Valley Bank ignored risks in models, creating false assurance that led to disaster.
