Trapital Five Bold Predictions: Netflix and Spotify, AI-Powered Industry, The Big 3’s Future, and More
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Nov 20, 2025 Tatiana Cirisano, VP of Music Strategy at MIDiA Research, dives into bold predictions about the music industry. She discusses the long-term viability of major record labels, suggesting they may need to innovate or shift to asset management. The possibility of a Netflix and Spotify merger is analyzed, with skepticism about its strategic fit. Tatiana also explores the fragmentation of mass culture and the potential for AI-powered tools to create new growth opportunities, including enabling independent artist-run labels.
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Labels Can Ride Catalog As Their Moat
- Major labels can pivot to become asset managers focused on catalog value.
- Their vast back catalogs and capital make them resilient despite industry fragmentation.
Catalog Lowers New-Music Betting Risk
- Investing in legacy catalog reduces risk as new hits become harder to predict.
- Labels use catalog and capital to diversify and maintain scale advantages.
Netflix + Spotify Makes Sense On Paper Only
- A Netflix + Spotify merger looks sensible on paper but lacks mutual urgency.
- Tatiana and Dan don't see Netflix aggressively pursuing an audio-first acquisition.