Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Running the Economic Gamut
Jul 25, 2025
Join Matt Colyar, an economist at Moody's Analytics, as he dives into the thorny issues shaping the 2025 U.S. economy. He discusses the growing challenges to Federal Reserve independence and the implications of recent tariff agreements. The conversation turns to the strained U.S. housing market and the potential impacts of a weakening dollar on consumers. They also address skepticism about impressive international investments and engage in light-hearted banter while predicting recession probabilities and consumer spending trends.
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High Tariffs Drag Economy
- Tariffs are rising, pushing the effective U.S. tariff rate well above 10%.
- This will increase inflation and reduce GDP growth significantly over time.
Stock Market Defies Economic Risks
- Stock market hits record highs despite tariff worries and economic slowing.
- Market optimism is driven by strong employment and AI sector enthusiasm, masking underlying risks.
Impacts of a Weakening Dollar
- A weaker dollar makes imports more expensive for consumers and businesses.
- It signals global investors' skepticism about the U.S. economy's safe haven status, potentially driving interest rates higher.