This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Trump's Syria shift – A pivotal moment for Damascus and the Middle East?
May 15, 2025
Dareen Khalifa is a Senior Advisor for Dialogue Promotion at the International Crisis Group, while Karam Shaar is a Syrian economist and consultant with the United Nations. They delve into the implications of Trump's recent decision to lift sanctions on Syria, igniting celebrations in Damascus. The discussion covers the nation's daunting path to recovery, the fragility of its political transitions, and the complexities of shifting alliances with regional powers. Economic challenges and sectarian tensions are also highlighted, showcasing a crucial moment for Syria's future.
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Syria's Zero Problems Diplomacy
- Syria's new government pursues a "zero problems policy" by reaching out diplomatically to former foes and former adversaries.
- This approach aims to build a broad network of friendly external actors to support state building and economic recovery.
Israel-Iran Policy Convergence Risks
- Israel and Iran share a surprising alignment in wanting Syria divided and weak, confusing Damascus.
- Israeli military actions risk forcing Syria towards Turkey, Syria's only military ally.
Fragile Transition Faces Sectarian Risks
- Syria's fragile transition struggles with a collapsing economy and deteriorating security, especially in sectarian mixed areas.
- There's widespread fear among minorities about whether the new government can prevent further massacres.