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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

CIO Global Livestream - Key questions for 2024

Feb 1, 2024
UBS CIO members Mark Haefele, Paul Donovan, Mark Andersen, and Nadia Lovell provide insights into the current state of the markets, discuss inflation signals and economic read across, explore the risks of a weakening U.S. dollar and inflationary comeback, highlight early trends in the US earnings season and positive signs for the economy, and examine the perception of inflation and consumer behavior in the United States.
31:26

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Certain states in the US, like Florida, are experiencing inflation problems due to rising insurance premiums, while large parts of the country have inflation at or below 2%, indicating a lack of price stickiness.
  • Political risk is challenging for markets to accurately price, especially with political polarization complicating the assessment of potential outcomes, therefore, focusing on economic fundamentals rather than relying heavily on market predictions for political outcomes is advisable.

Deep dives

Inflation trends and their impact on the economy

The US is experiencing two interesting trends in inflation: certain states, like Florida, have an inflation problem due to rising insurance premiums, while large parts of the US have inflation at or below 2%. This suggests a lack of price stickiness. Additionally, the middle-income consumers, especially in the face, have been experiencing lower inflation than the headline numbers, giving them more spending power. These trends indicate a relatively benign macroeconomic scenario for most developed economies in 2024.

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