Gartner ThinkCast The Truth Behind AI Layoffs and the Future of Work Trends for 2026
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Jan 13, 2026 Emily Rose McRae, a Gartner Senior Director Analyst specializing in future work trends, tackles the complexities of AI’s impact on layoffs and productivity. She reveals that many recent layoffs aren't as AI-driven as headlines suggest, urging leaders to focus on the real pressures of rising performance expectations. The conversation dives into the hidden productivity drain from low-quality AI outputs, termed 'workslop,' and stresses the importance of mental fitness in managing cultural strain. Emily advocates for a transparent, people-first approach to organizational change in an AI-first world.
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Rising Performance Expectations Create Anxiety
- Executive expectations of performance have risen without clear plans to achieve gains.
- That gap fuels anxiety about whether organizations have the right people and roles.
Most Reported AI Layoffs Are Mischaracterized
- Most layoff notices in early 2025 were unrelated to AI, according to WARN Act analysis.
- AI often shows up as a rationalization, not the primary cause of workforce reductions.
Three Ways AI Changes Workforce Allocation
- Organizations change headcount for three AI-related reasons: hiring restraint, replacement, or strategic reframing.
- True replacement due to AI productivity is rare; strategic redeployment is more common.