Elevate with Robert Glazer Weekend Conversations: Don't Bet on Exceptional Outcomes
Apr 12, 2025
Dive into the world of decision-making where instincts clash with data! Discover why leaders often misjudge risks by betting on unlikely outcomes. The conversation reveals the dangers of overconfidence and the pitfalls of counteroffers in the workplace. Explore the significance of timely evaluations for new employees and learn how to navigate survivorship bias in leadership. This engaging discussion emphasizes the need for a balanced approach combining strict rules with pragmatic flexibility to foster effective leadership.
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Emotional Decisions
- Leaders often make emotional decisions, especially with frequent, similar choices.
- This is driven by focusing on exceptions that defy the odds, ignoring the majority.
Examples of Exceptions
- Robert Glazer discusses two common examples: evaluating new hires after a few weeks and handling counteroffers.
- He points out how leaders celebrate exceptions, ignoring the low probability of success.
Data-Driven Rules
- Leaders should set rules based on data, even if it seems harsh, to improve outcomes.
- Accept occasional mistakes from following the rule to avoid larger losses from exceptions.