At Any Rate Global FX and Rates: FOMC, Payrolls, Refunding and Trade deals
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Aug 1, 2025 Join Meera Chandan and Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy at JPMorgan, as they dive into key financial topics impacting FX and rates. Jay shares insights on the resilient dollar and how recent employment data is reshaping Fed policy. They discuss the implications of the Treasury's refunding process, market volatility, and the shift in investment strategies due to evolving interest rates. Additionally, they explore potential opportunities in European currencies amid changing economic trends.
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Unemployment Rate Guides Fed Policy
- The unemployment rate is the key indicator the Fed focuses on for policy decisions now.
- Payroll data revisions and a higher unemployment rate suggest earlier Fed easing and lower terminal rates.
Treasury Refunding Moderates Term Premium
- Treasury's refunding plan modestly shortens average maturity but won't significantly reduce term premium.
- Buybacks increase few months of maturity annually; Treasury likely to issue more short and mid-term debt, capping term premium.
Treasury Yield Curve Dynamics
- Front-end Treasury yields offer asymmetric value, while longer-term yields face upward pressure constraints.
- Yield curve steepening may reflect Fed criticism and market pricing of easing delays and inflation premium.