Today in Focus The people betting on catastrophic world events
9 snips
Feb 4, 2026 
Sahil Desai, Senior editor at The Atlantic and politics and media journalist, guides a deep dive into prediction markets. He traces their rise, explains how platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi operate, and maps the strange range of bets from trivial to catastrophic. He also explores regulatory differences, anonymity risks and how markets can shape news and real-world outcomes.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Suspicious Insider-Style Bet Before Raid
- An anonymous trader placed well-timed bets on Polymarket that Maduro would be ousted just hours before the raid occurred.
- That single series of trades reportedly netted the bettor nearly half a million dollars, suggesting possible insider knowledge.
Markets Pose As Forecasts, Act As Bets
- Prediction markets present themselves as forecasting tools and mimic stock-market mechanics rather than traditional betting.
- In practice they function like gambling platforms where users wager directly against each other.
Bets Stretch From Sacred To Silly
- Polymarket hosts bets ranging from Jesus returning to how often Elon Musk will tweet, with vast sums traded on quirky markets.
- One Elon Musk tweeting market amassed almost $20 million in volume for a single prediction window.