Dareen Khalifa, a seasoned dialogue advisor at Crisis Group, and Nanar Hawach, a Syria expert from Homs, delve into the tumultuous future of Syria post-Assad. They discuss the implications of the HTS offensive, the disbandment of regime forces, and the struggles of new leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa. They touch on the integration of rebel factions, security challenges faced by minorities, and the delicate balance of U.S. interests amid the risk of a resurgent Islamic State. Political transformation and the quest for stability in a fragmented landscape are key themes.
Turkey's dominant influence in Syria's governance transition raises concerns about national sovereignty and regional stability amid ongoing tensions.
Syria's new leadership faces significant challenges in consolidating fragmented factions and managing political transitions while navigating economic sanctions and security issues.
Deep dives
Turkey's Role in Syria's Transition
Turkey plays a crucial role in Syria's transformative period following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. The podcast emphasizes that Turkey has emerged as a dominant force behind the new governance structure, raising concerns about the implications for Syria's sovereignty. The U.S. has a vested interest in supporting a stable Syria, which respects religious minorities and prevents the resurgence of extremist groups like ISIS while curbing Iranian influence. Experts highlight the importance of navigating these complex relations to ensure the new leaders can effectively establish governance without further regional conflict.
Challenges for Syria's New Leadership
Syria's new leadership, particularly de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharah, faces formidable challenges in unifying various factions under a consolidated military command. There is tension between former rebels and remnants of the regime, compounded by economic sanctions that hinder their ability to govern effectively. The need for public order amidst a backdrop of diverse militia groups poses significant operational hurdles. The success of al-Sharah's government hinges on his ability to manage expectations and navigate political transitions while avoiding clashes among these various factions.
The Kurdish Question and Northeast Dynamics
The situation in Northeast Syria, primarily governed by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), is a focal point of concern, with ongoing tensions between the SDF and Turkey-backed rebels. While there is potential for negotiation between the new leadership and Kurdish forces, the need for balanced solutions that address both parties' security concerns remains critical. The SDF's reluctance to engage in disarmament without political guarantees underscores the fragility of this transitional period. Effective collaboration is essential to prevent a humanitarian crisis and maintain stability in a resource-rich region.
International Relations and Sanctions Relief
The new Syrian administration is actively seeking to engage with international powers to lift economic sanctions and secure reconstruction aid. The podcast discusses the divided opinions within Western capitals regarding sanction policies, highlighting the challenges faced in shaping a coherent strategy toward Syria's transition. Analysts stress that improving Syria's economy and alleviating humanitarian conditions are essential to building lasting stability. The relationship with the U.S. and the international community will significantly shape the future governance structure and humanitarian efforts within the country.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Dareen Khalifa and Nanar Hawach to discuss what’s ahead for Syria after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They unpack the offensive led by Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rebels, the rapid disintegration of regime forces and Syrians’ hopes after more than a decade of war. They look at the challenges Syria’s new authorities are facing under HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, including protecting public order, integrating the country’s fragmented rebel factions, army remnants and militias into a unified command, and steering a political transition. They look at security in central and western Syria, how minorities view Syria’s new rulers, and north-eastern Syria, where Turkish-backed groups have been battling the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). They discuss the U.S.’s role in Syria, the risk of a resurgent Islamic State and al-Sharaa’s efforts to get sanctions lifted and restore Syria’s relations with regional and Western capitals.