Hold Your Fire!

What's Next for Syria?

Jan 25, 2025
Dareen Khalifa, a seasoned dialogue advisor at Crisis Group, and Nanar Hawach, a Syria expert from Homs, delve into the tumultuous future of Syria post-Assad. They discuss the implications of the HTS offensive, the disbandment of regime forces, and the struggles of new leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa. They touch on the integration of rebel factions, security challenges faced by minorities, and the delicate balance of U.S. interests amid the risk of a resurgent Islamic State. Political transformation and the quest for stability in a fragmented landscape are key themes.
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INSIGHT

HTS Offensive Strategy

  • HTS's offensive in Syria was not a surprise attack, but a strategically planned operation.
  • The regime's forces were exhausted by repeated mobilizations, leading to a swift collapse.
INSIGHT

Syrian Army Collapse

  • The Syrian army's collapse was due to fragmentation, focus on profit over defense, and forced conscription.
  • Russia's involvement in Ukraine and Iran's weakened state contributed to the regime's downfall.
ANECDOTE

Unifying Armed Factions

  • HTS aims to unify all armed factions under a single national army.
  • They are using a combination of negotiation and force to achieve this goal.
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