Geopolitical Cousins The Illusion of Decoupling
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Oct 15, 2025 Jacob and Marko explore the complex web of U.S.-China relations, revealing the flawed notion of economic decoupling. They dissect China's rare earth export controls and the strategic use of shipping fees in trade negotiations. The hosts also highlight the implications of technologies and bureaucratic inertia on trade policies. Generational shifts in activism, global protests, and the role of cocaine production in geopolitics add intriguing layers to the conversation. The episode paints a vivid picture of interconnectedness in an increasingly polarized world.
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Decoupling Is An Illusion
- The US-China conflict is a feedback loop of export controls and countermeasures, not full decoupling.
- Both sides retain leverage but neither can fully disentangle given deep supply-chain interdependence.
Reciprocity, Not Escalation
- China's rare-earth export approvals mirror US semiconductor export controls as reciprocal leverage.
- Beijing frames measures as controls not bans to signal proportional retaliation without full economic self-harm.
Bureaucracy Vs. The Executive
- US policymaking splits between bureaucratic momentum and executive impulses.
- That creates mixed signals: long technical export rules plus headline political threats that complicate de-escalation.
