Search Party How Are ETA Investors Really Faring? Yale Has Some Answers
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Jan 5, 2026 
Guests A. J. Wasserstein, a Yale lecturer and research expert, Daniel Lazier, a search fund entrepreneur, and Dustin Sellers, an ETA private equity veteran, dive into the intricacies of ETA investing. They reveal that 58% of investments yield below a 1.9x return and explore why broader investments don't guarantee better results. The discussion touches on the advantages of 'high-status' investors, the shifting nature of returns, and the importance of assessing searcher qualities. They also argue ETA is increasingly resembling venture capital dynamics.
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Enter ETA With Eyes Wide Open
- Investors and aspiring searchers must enter with eyes wide open and understand the math and probabilities of the asset class.
- Don't expect easy 5x returns; underwrite realistically and plan for skewed outcomes.
Search Fund Returns Are Highly Skewed
- Over half of ETA outcomes fall below a 1.9x MOIC, revealing a heavily skewed return distribution.
- Only about 2% of outcomes exceed 10x MOIC, making extreme winners rare but decisive for portfolios.
One Big Win Can Make Or Break Returns
- A single 10x 'Griffin' materially shifts portfolio performance and can make the difference between good and great returns.
- Missing a Griffin can cost roughly half to a full turn of the portfolio multiple in their sample.