Odd Lots How to Forecast the Future
Aug 26, 2019
Philip Tetlock, a leading expert in forecasting and psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, sheds light on the art of prediction amidst today's uncertainties. He discusses the complex dynamics of economic forecasting, where psychological biases often cloud judgment. Tetlock emphasizes the tension between delivering entertaining soundbites and offering precise, informative predictions. He also highlights the need for accountability among forecasters and stresses the importance of embracing historical context and adaptive thinking in making accurate forecasts.
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Expert Overconfidence
- Experts are frequently wrong in their forecasts.
- This overconfidence stems from quickly forming opinions and slowly changing them.
Intrigue Over Accuracy
- Forecasts often aim for intrigue rather than accuracy.
- This leads to vague predictions that are hard to disprove.
Using Experience Wisely
- Leverage experience to refine judgment and acknowledge limitations.
- Avoid rigid thinking; be open to adjusting views based on new evidence.
