Dr Madeleine Sumption from the Migration Observatory at Oxford talks about falling net migration. The podcast also debunks claims about Taylor Swift's economic impact and explores the reasons behind the rising UK prison population.
UK's economy growth compared to other countries may not reflect overall performance due to potential fluctuations in early estimates.
Rising prison population in England and Wales attributed to longer sentences, prison recalls, and remand numbers, leading to capacity crisis.
Deep dives
UK's Economic Growth and Statistics
The UK's economy is reportedly growing faster than major competitors like Germany, France, and the US based on first-quarter GDP growth. However, these early estimates can change significantly and may not reflect overall economic performance. Looking at growth since 2019 reveals that the UK ranks fifth out of six G7 countries, with slow growth compared to previous decades. The UK's GDP per person could be 39% higher if growth had continued at pre-2008 levels.
Labour's Claims on Household Income Impact
The Labour Party claims that the typical household in the UK is worse off by £5,883 since 2019, citing factors like increased mortgage costs, motoring expenses, energy bills, and groceries. However, these figures are not based on official statistics and may not consider rising incomes. Independent forecasts suggest a smaller drop in household disposable income, highlighting discrepancies in the Labour Party's claims.
Prison Population Crisis in England and Wales
The prison service in England and Wales is facing a capacity crisis as the population reaches record highs, leading to unusual measures such as pausing non-priority arrests and early prisoner releases. The rise in the prison population is not solely due to increased crime levels but is influenced by longer sentences, prison recalls, and a significant number of people on remand. Despite efforts to increase prison capacity, construction has fallen short of meeting the growing demands over the years.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said that the UK economy is growing faster than Germany, France and the US, while Labour says the typical household in the UK is worse off by £5,883 since 2019. Are these claims fair? We give some needed context.
Net migration has fallen - we talk to someone who predicted it would - Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.
Is Taylor Swift about to add £1 bn to the British economy as some media outlets have claimed? The answer is ‘No’.
Why are our prisons full? We ask Cassia Rowland from the Institute for Government.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower, Bethan Ashmead Latham and Ellie House
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Production coordinator: Brenda Brown
Editor: Richard Vadon
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