Masters in Business

Daniel Kahneman on Behavioral Economics (Podcast)

6 snips
May 14, 2021
Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize-winning psychologist and author of "Thinking, Fast and Slow," shares fascinating insights into behavioral economics. He discusses 'noise'—the variability in judgment that leads to inconsistent decisions across various fields like medicine and finance. Kahneman emphasizes the importance of independent judgments to reduce bias and enhance decision-making accuracy. With humor and personal anecdotes, he reflects on the evolution of behavioral economics and offers career advice for aspiring professionals.
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INSIGHT

Defining Judgment Noise

  • Noise in judgment is when different people, or the same person at different times, make different assessments of the same thing.
  • This occurs when they are expected to agree, like when estimating a company's value or a criminal's sentence.
ANECDOTE

Insurance Company Noise

  • Kahneman's work on noise started with an insurance company where underwriters estimated premiums.
  • Expected differences between underwriters were 10%, but the actual difference was 55%.
INSIGHT

Errors Don't Cancel Out

  • While errors in measuring the same object cancel out when averaged, errors in different objects do not.
  • Overpricing one policy and underpricing another are two distinct mistakes, not a neutralized outcome.
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