Top of the Morning: Year Ahead - Investment Grade Corporates edition
Dec 14, 2023
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In this podcast, Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses the outlook for Investment Grade Corporate Bonds in 2024. He explores topics such as performance in the past year, potential appreciation in bond prices, and opportunities within the industry sectors and credit ratings. McAlinden recommends a barbell approach to yield curve strategy for investors.
Investment grade corporate bonds have performed well in 2023, providing a total return of around 5.3% driven by coupon income and relatively stable pricing.
The outlook for investment grade corporate bonds in 2024 is positive, with the potential for price gains driven by declining treasury yields and limited spread widening.
Deep dives
Overview of Investment Grade Corporate Bond Market
Investment grade corporate bonds are primarily issued by companies, with credit ratings ranging from triple B to triple A. The market is largely dominated by US dollar-denominated debt securities, with issuers from North America, Europe, and APAC. The size of the investment grade corporate bond market is around 8 trillion. The investor base primarily consists of institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies, although individuals also invest in this asset class. It's important to note that investment grade corporates are fully taxable investments, so individuals are advised to hold them in tax-advantaged accounts.
Performance of Investment Grade Corporate Bonds in 2023
In 2023, investment grade corporate bonds performed well, driven by their yield and relatively stable prices. Despite interest rate volatility throughout the year, the total return for investment grade corporates was around 5.3%. This return was mainly due to the coupon income, as the pricing of the asset class remained relatively flat. Credit spreads tightened by about 20 basis points, with the most significant re-pricing occurring in November. The asset class demonstrated its value during market turbulence, such as the bank failures in March. Looking ahead to 2024, the outlook remains positive, with potential for price gains driven by declining treasury yields.
Outlook for Investment Grade Corporate Bonds in 2024 and Positioning Recommendations
The outlook for investment grade corporate bonds in 2024 is optimistic, with the main value proposition being the absolute yield provided by the asset class. As treasury yields are expected to decline, bond prices, including investment grade corporates, may appreciate. The credit spreads of investment grade corporates have tightened recently, with the index currently at around 110 basis points. Although some widening of spreads is possible, it is expected to be limited. The CIO recommends a barbell approach to positioning, with investments in both short-term maturities (1-3 years) and slightly longer maturities (7-10 years). This approach seeks to capture good coupon income and potential price appreciation if yields continue to fall. It is also an opportune time for investors who use ladder strategies to implement a combined strategy.
Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for Investment Grade Corporate Bonds and where opportunity can be found. Featured is Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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